[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171609
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jul 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave axis is near 39W from 19N
southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
seen within 330 nm either side of the wave axis from 06N to 13N.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 63W S of
17N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 60 nm W of the wave axis from 10N-15N, and within 300 nm E
of the wave axis from 09N-13.5N, including in the vicinity of
Trinidad and the southern Windward Islands.

A central Caribbean tropical wave axis is near 76W south of 19N,
moving W at 20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 15
.5N-17N between 72W-76.5W. Additional showers are noted from 08N-
12N between 75W-79W, where the wave intersects the east Pacific
monsoon trough.

A western Caribbean tropical wave axis is near 84W from 19N
southward to the coast of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and into the east
Pacific, and is moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
noted within 150 nm E of the wave axis from 17N-20N. Scattered
moderate convection is south of 11N and west of 80.5W, just
offshore western Panama and Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
17N16W to 12N22W to 09N42W. The ITCZ continues from 09N42W to
08N49W to 10N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
06N-09N between 13W-22W and from 08N-11N between 55W-59W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough axis extends from the western Florida
Panhandle south-southwestward to the Bay of Campeche. A surface
trough is analyzed from the Florida Big Bend near 30N83W to
23N88W. These features are supporting scattered moderate
convection north of 25N and east of 86W. Elsewhere, isolated
showers and tstorms are occurring over portions of the
southwestern Gulf and offshore south-central Louisiana. Surface
ridging prevails over the basin, anchored by a 1016 mb high
pressure near 28N91W. The basin is experiencing light to gentle
wind speeds and 1 to 2 ft seas.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
region this week. Under this weather pattern, mainly gentle to
moderate winds will prevail, except near and to the NW of the
Yucatan peninsula where moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse
each night into the early morning hours due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection in the
Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong trade winds prevail across the
central and eastern Caribbean Sea, where seas are 6-8 ft. Gentle
SE winds are occurring in the NW basin, with 1 to 3 ft seas.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the basin and the Colombian/Panamanian low will lead to
fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean into the
middle of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level diffluent pattern and ample atmospheric moisture
are sustaining numerous moderate isolated strong convection north
of 25N between 77W and the east coast of Florida. Scattered
showers and isolated tstorms are noted elsewhere north of 23N and
west of 71.5W. The remainder of the Atlantic is free of
significant precipitation areas. Moderate S winds prevail north of
25N and west of 70W, except stronger from 27N-29N between
78.5W-80.5W, where strong convection prevails. Fresh SE winds
prevail south of 25N and west of 70W, except for strong E winds
between the N coast of Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos
Islands.

An east-west oriented subtropical ridge is along 32N between 35W-
70W. As a result, gentle to moderate trades prevail north of 25N
along with seas of 3-5 ft. A recent ASCAT satellite data pass
shows moderate to fresh NE-E trades from the ITCZ to 24N between
35W-62W, where seas are 5-7 ft. In the far E Atlantic off the
coast of Western Sahara, fresh to strong N to NE winds and seas
of 7-9 ft are occurring.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will continue to dominate the
region west of 55W early this week. The pressure gradient between
the southern periphery of the ridge and tropical waves moving
across the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to locally strong
easterly winds just off of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, including
the approaches to the Windward Passage, through Mon night.
Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are expected
across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles through Wed. In the
eastern Atlantic, strong N to NE winds will continue from 18N-28N
between 25W and the coast of Africa through Mon.

$$
Hagen
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