[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jul 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 31W from 19N
southward, moving west near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is present from 06N to 09N between 25W and 34W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W from 16N southward,
and moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 07N to 14N between 51W and 59W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 66W from Puerto Rico to
western Venezuela, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is located near the coast of Venezuela.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 76W from just E of
Jamaica to eastern Colombia, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted over Haiti and northern Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends from the coast of southern Senegal across
11N22W to 09N29W. Scattered moderate convection is found near and
south of the trough from 06N to 10N between the central African
coast and 25W. An ITCZ continues westward from 08N36W to 07N42W,
then northwestward to 11N51W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted up to 90 nm along either side of this feature.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A upper-level trough over the NE Gulf of Mexico is inducing
scattered moderate convection from near New Orleans to the Florida
Big Bend. Along the Florida coast, convection is being enhanced
by a weak surface trough stretching southward just offshore the
Peninsula. Earlier convection in the eastern Bay of Campeche has
diminished and is not confined inland over the Yucatan Peninsula.
Fresh NE winds are occurring W of the Yucatan Peninsula, otherwise
mainly gentle winds prevail. Seas are 3 to to 5 ft in the Bay of
Campeche, with 1 to 3 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf into
early next week, producing mainly gentle winds with the exception
of gentle to moderate SE to S winds across the NW and west-
central waters. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected
over the western Gulf for the latter half of next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection in the
Caribbean Sea. A NE to ENE trade-wind regime continues over the
entire Caribbean Sea. Fresh winds along with 6 to 7 ft seas
persist in the south-central Caribbean, north of Colombia. Mainly
gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft are present for the
northwestern basin and near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica coastline.
Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the basin and the Colombian/Panamanian low will lead to
fresh to locally strong winds in the south-central Caribbean
through early next week. Fresh trade winds and seas in the 6 to 9
ft range in NE swell are expected across the waters E of the
Lesser Antilles through tonight. The aerial extent of the trades
will increase across the Caribbean waters early on Sun as high
pressure N of the area strengthens.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) over the
northwest Bahamas along with its induced surface trough extending
S to Cuba continue to produce scattered moderate convection from
the northern shore of Cuba northward across the Bahamas to
offshore of northern Florida. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and
Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic
Basin.

An elongated 1025 mb high over the north-central Atlantic is
supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft seas north
of 27N between 35W and 65W. Farther west, gentle SE winds with
seas at 4 to 6 ft are present north of 27N between 65W and the
Georgia/northern Florida coast. To the south, moderate to fresh NE
to ENE trades and 6 to 8 ft seas exist from 10N to 27N between 35W
and the Lesser Antilles; and also from the Greater Antilles to
27N between 65W and the southern Florida coast. Gentle to moderate
NNE to NE trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are seen near the Canary
Islands, north of 13N between the northwest African coast and
35W. Light to gentle with locally moderate SE and monsoonal winds
with seas at 5 to 7 ft in southerly swell prevail for the rest of
the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the Atlantic ridge dominating weather
through the basin will drift E this weekend. This will allow
trades to expand north, with pulses of strong winds impacting
areas N of Hispaniola each night through Mon. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate wind will prevail.

$$
Konarik
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