[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jul 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 22W from northeast of
the Cabo Verde Islands at 19N southward, and moving W near 15 kt.
Scattered showers are seen from 06N to 10N between 20W and 27W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 16N southward,
and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 10N to 13N between 41W and 52W.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave is just east of Barbados
near 57W from 22N southward, and moving W at 20 to 25 kt.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near
Trinidad and Tobago, and south of Barbados.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 69W from eastern
Hispaniola at 19N southward into western Venezuela, and moving W
near 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
present over west-central Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the border of
Gambia and Senegal across 11N25W to 08N31W. Scattered showers are
evident south of the trough from 07N to 13N between the central
African coast and 20W. An ITCZ then continues from 08N31W to
05N41W, then from 05N47W to near the French Guiana/Brazil border.
Scattered moderate convection is found up to 140 nm north, and 60
nm south of this feature.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and thunderstorms near the coast of Costa Rica,
Panama and nearby Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough runs west-southwestward from the Florida
Panhandle to southeast of New Orleans. Another one is over
northern Florida. These features are triggering scattered showers
and thunderstorms over the northeast Gulf from near New Orleans
eastward to the Florida Big Band area. Gentle to moderate
southerly winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are found in this area. Over
the western Bay of Campeche, a mid-level trough is producing
numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms. Moderate to
fresh easterly winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft exist for the entire
Bay of Campeche. Surface ridging associated with a modest 1019 mb
high over the east-central Gulf supports light to gentle winds and
seas at 1 to 2 ft for the remainder of the Gulf.

For the forecast, modest high pressure will persist into the
weekend, creating gentle winds across much of the Gulf. A surface
trough over the Yucatan Peninsula will create nightly pulses of
fresh NE winds to the west of the peninsula during this period.
Southerly winds will increase to moderate over the far western
Gulf early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
weather across the basin.

A NE to ENE trade-wind regime continues over the entire Caribbean
Sea. Fresh to strong trades and 6 to 8 ft seas are found at the
south-central basin, just north of Colombia and northwestern
Venezuela; and at the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades
and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted for the eastern and north-central
basin. Gentle to moderate trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft are present
at the southwestern basin. Mainly gentle trades and 3 to 4 ft
seas prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of
Honduras through tonight before diminishing. The pressure
gradient between high pressure north of the basin and low pressure
to the south will lead to fresh to locally strong winds in the
south-central Caribbean through the weekend, with some strong
winds also in the Atlantic waters Fri night and Sat. Large NE to
E swell will impact the waters near the Virgin, Leeward and
Windward Islands through Sat night, then subside Sun into Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) centered over
the Great Bahama Bank is generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms from the central Bahamas northwestward to the coast
of northern Florida. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical
Waves sections for additional weather across the Atlantic Basin.

A large dome of 1028 mb high pressure over the north-central
Atlantic is sustaining light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas
north of 26N between 40W and 67W, and farther west north of 27N
between 67W and the northern Florida coast. To the south, NE to
ENE moderate to fresh trades and seas at 6 to 8 ft are evident
from 10N to 26N between 30W and 67W/Lesser Antilles. Farther
west, mainly moderate ENE trades and 4 to 6 ft seas exist from 20N
to 27N between 30W and the central/southern Florida coast,
including the Bahamas. Near the Canary Islands, gentle to moderate
NNE trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present north of 18N between
the northwest African coast and 30W. Light to gentle winds and
seas at 6 to 8 ft in southerly swell prevail for the rest of the
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned high pressure will
shift north into the weekend. This will allow trades to expand
northward, and pulses of strong winds will commence nightly
offshore from Hispaniola starting Fri night. Expect scattered
showers and thunderstorms to continue over the Bahamas and near
the Florida coast through the weekend, as the TUTT creates
additional instability. Winds and seas may be higher in and near
showers and thunderstorms.

$$

Chan
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net