[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141025
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jul 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 40W from
02N to 20N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 120 nm west of he wave from 10N to 12N,
and within 60 nm east of the wave from 10N to 14N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 47W from 02N
to 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is within 180 nm west and 60 nm east of the wave from 10N to 11N.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 62W south
of 20N, moving westward near 15 kt. No significant deep convection
is noted with this wave. Isolated showers are north of 13N and
east of 65W.

The earlier western Caribbean tropical wave that had its axis
along 88W has moved inland Central America. Please see the Eastern
Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion for information on this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
southeastern Senegal near 13N17W to 10N24W and to 07N31W, where
latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the
ITCZ to 07N39W. It becomes fragmented between tropical waves from
06N41W to 06N46W and west of a tropical wave from 06N48W to
07N55W. Aside from convection related to the tropical waves,
increasing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 180 nm north of the trough between 22W-26W, and within 60
nm either side of the trough between the coast of Africa and 19W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the ITCZ between
31W-34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A high pressure ridge extends from the central Bahamas west-
southwest to the central Gulf and to the coast of Mexico near
23N98W. Latest overnight ASCAT data passes show a gentle to
moderate anticyclonic wind flow present north of 24N/25N. Wave
heights are in the 2-4 ft range, except for slightly higher
heights of 3-5 ft from 22N to 26N west of 87W.

An-upper level low is identified on water vapor imagery over
the south-central Gulf at 23N90W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted between the upper-level low and the
Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
elsewhere over the Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure ridge will
gradually weaken as it lifts northward to the southeastern
U.S. by the weekend. This will allow for mainly gentle winds
over the Gulf into early next week. Southerly winds increase
to moderate speeds over the far western Gulf starting late on
Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is south of 13N west 80W, mainly
due to the eastern segment of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough
that extends from southern Costa Rica to northwest Colombia near
09N75W.

Upper-level cyclonic wind flow present north of 13N between
66W-82W is due to a large upper-level low that is located near
the southeastern Bahamas. Scattered shower and thunderstorms are
are just offshore eastern Cuba, including the Windward Passage.

Latest overnight ASCAT data passes show fresh to strong northeast
to east trade winds over the central Caribbean Sea, south of 15N
and between 72W-77W. Wave heights with these winds are 8-9 ft.
Elsewhere, the ASCAT data passes indicate moderate to fresh trade
winds over the basin, except for fresh to strong east winds in the
Gulf of Honduras and gentle to moderate trade winds in the
eastern part of the basin. Wave heights are in the 4-6 ft range,
except for 3-5 ft in the northwestern Caribbean and 6-8 ft from
11N to 15N west of 72W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will weaken some allowing
for the fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central
Caribbean to diminish to mainly fresh speeds on Fri through Sat.
The gradient will tighten again on Sun causing these winds to
increase to fresh to strong Sun through Mon night while expanding
in coverage over the central Caribbean. Fresh to strong east to
southeast winds in the Gulf of Honduras will continue through
tonight and diminish to fresh speeds Fri. Large NE to E swell is
anticipated to begin impacting the tropical Atlantic Ocean zones
tonight. The swell will continue through Sat night, then subside
on Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends from 30N50W to 28N70W and to South
Florida and to the central Gulf of Mexico. Overnight ASCAT
data passes generally depict a gentle to moderate anticyclonic
wind flow throughout, except for fresh east winds from 10N to 25N
east of 70W and also south of 24N between 70W and the central
Bahamas. Wave heights range from 3-5 ft west of 65W, and
5-7 ft over the the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A large upper-level low (TUTT) is identified on satellite imagery
to be near the southeastern Bahamas near 22N76W moving to the
northwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen east and
northeast of the low from 20N to 27N between 68W- 76W. Similar
activity is along and just offshore the southeast Florida coast.

An upper-level trough over the eastern U.S. is helping to induce
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the far northwest part
of the area within 30 nm of a line from 31N79W to 30N80W. This
activity is quickly moving eastward.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned high pressure ridge
extending from 30N55W to 28N70W and to South Florida will
gradually shift northward during the next couple days. As the
pressure gradient increases, the E trades south of 25N should
strengthen to fresh to strong from tonight through the weekend.
Large E swell will impact the waters south of 22N from tonight
through Sat before diminishing again Sun. Expect for scattered
showers and thunderstorms to increase over most of the western
part of area today into the weekend as an upper-level low creates
additional instability. Winds and seas may higher in and near
showers and thunderstorms.

$$
Aguirre
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