[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130541
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jul 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W/34W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby
precipitation is closer to the ITCZ.

A surface trough is along 11N39W 07N43W 05N48W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 300 nm on either
side of the surface trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W/54W from 20N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. The sea heights range from
7 feet to 8 feet from 08N to 11N between 52W and 55W. No
significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in the
satellite imagery.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W/81W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: The monsoon
trough is along 10N75W in Colombia, to 11N80W, and westward
beyond northern Costa Rica, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is in Colombia from
08N to 10N between the border with Venezuela and 76W; and within
30 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 77W and 79W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 20N
southward from 80W westward. Scattered moderate to strong is in
the southern half of Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W, to 10N22W. The ITCZ continues from
10N22W, to 08N32W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered
moderate and locally to isolated strong is within 240 nm on
either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Yucatan Peninsula, and
for a few hundred miles to the north of the Peninsula.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the
Yucatan Peninsula and its surrounding waters.

A surface ridge passes through 27N70W in the Atlantic Ocean,
across the Bahamas Islands, through the central sections of the
Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 2 feet in
the Yucatan Channel and the Straits of Florida, to 4 feet in the
NE Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights are 3 feet or less in the
remainder of the area. Gentle wind speeds or slower are in the
Gulf of Mexico.

An upper level inverted trough extends from the southern part of
the Yucatan Peninsula, northwestward, to the coast of Mexico
near 23N98W. Yucatan Peninsula. A tropical wave is along
97W/98W, from 22N southward, moving westward 10 knots.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. High clouds are in
the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface trough is in the Florida Panhandle. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is in the north central Gulf of Mexico.

Disorganized rainshowers and thunderstorms in the N Gulf of
Mexico are associated with a surface trough. This system is
forecast to drift northward during the next few days and
significant development is unlikely due to the system's
proximity to land. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
likely to continue in the area for at least the next couple of
days. Elsewhere, winds and seas should remain quiescent through
the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W/81W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: The monsoon
trough is along 10N75W in Colombia, to 11N80W, and westward
beyond northern Costa Rica, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation:  scattered to numerous strong is in Colombia from
08N to 10N between the border with Venezuela and 76W; and within
30 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 77W and 79W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 20N
southward from 80W westward. Scattered moderate to strong is in
the southern half of Nicaragua.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea and the
Atlantic Ocean from 12N northward between 60W and 80W. High
level clouds cover the area that is from 25N southward between
60W and 70W, on the eastern side of the upper level cyclonic
wind flow.

The surface pressure gradient, that is between the Azores high
pressure area the comparatively lower surface pressure that is
in the SW Caribbean Sea, is producing strong easterly winds and
sea heights that range from 6 feet to 8 feet, in the central
Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh easterly winds, and sea heights
that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are in the eastern Caribbean
Sea. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds, and sea heights that
range from 2 feet to 4 feet, are in the NW Caribbean Sea.

The Bermuda-Azores High will maintain strong to near gale E
trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through Wed. By
Thu as the high weakens, the trades should diminish to fresh to
strong through the end of the week. Fresh to strong east to
southeast trade winds in the Gulf of Honduras will continue
through Thu night before diminishing. Rough NE to E swell is
anticipated to begin impacting the tropical Atlantic zones Thu
night and continue through early Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge passes through 31N50W to 27N70W, across the
Bahamas, and into the central Gulf of Mexico. The winds are
moderate to the north of the ridge. The winds are gentle to
moderate to the south of the ridge. Easterly winds are moderate
to fresh from 20N southward. The winds are moderate to fresh in
the central Atlantic Ocean. N to NE winds are moderate in the
eastern Atlantic Ocean. Sea heights that range from 7 feet to 9
feet are mixed with other sea heights that range from 4 feet to
6 feet, from the Cabo Verde Islands northward from 30W eastward.
The sea heights range from 7 feet to 8 feet from the Cabo Verde
Islands southward from 30W eastward. The sea heights range from
4 feet to 6 feet from 20N northward between 30W and 50W. The sea
heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet from 20N southward from 30W
westward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

Upper-level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea and the
Atlantic Ocean from 12N northward between 60W and 80W. High
level clouds cover the area that is from 25N southward between
60W and 70W, on the eastern side of the upper level cyclonic
wind flow. A high pressure ridge extending along 27N gradually
will shift northward during the next few days. As the pressure
gradient increases, the E trades south of 25N should strengthen
to fresh from Wed night through the end of the week. Rough E
swell will impact the waters zones south of 22N from Thu night
through Sat.

$$
mt/ja
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