[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111624
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jul 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 36W from 06N to
20N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 06N to 09N, between 34W and 40W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends along 68W from 07N to
19N, moving W at 15 kt. Associated convection is isolated and
weak.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends along 84W from 07N to
21N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 12N to 18N, between 82W and 86W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 10N33W. The ITCZ begins west of a tropical wave,
extending from 08N40W to 07N58W along the coast of Guyana. In
addition to convection associated with the tropical wave,
scattered moderate convection is observed along the monsoon trough
from 05N to 12N, between 14W to 27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge continues to dominate the Gulf waters supporting
gentle to moderate S-SW winds across the majority of the basin. A
surface trough is analyzed from the Florida panhandle to the
east-central Gulf. Scattered moderate convection associated with
this trough is observed from 25N to 30N, between 82W and 92W.
Buoys and altimeter data confirm seas are 2-4 ft throughout the
Gulf.

For the forecast, the present gradient will maintain light to
gentle southwest winds east of 90W through the forecast period,
except over the far NE Gulf where a slighter tighter gradient near
the trough will support moderate to fresh southwest winds. Gentle
to moderate southerly winds west of 94W will increase to moderate
to fresh speeds at night through Thu as broad low pressure
develops over Texas and northeastern Mexico. Light to gentle winds
are expected across the Gulf on Fri, except over the eastern Bay
of Campeche where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough
coming off the Yucatan peninsula at night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and the Colombian
Low is supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and 5-8
ft seas across the majority of the basin, except in the NW
portion, where winds are gentle to moderate and seas are 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, strong high pressure centered over the north-
central Atlantic extending a ridge to the northern Caribbean will
maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern
Caribbean, and fresh to strong winds in the central and
southwestern portions of the basin through Fri night. These winds
will be modulated by a pair of tropical waves moving across the
area. Gentle to moderate winds in the northwest Caribbean will
increase to moderate to fresh on Tue, and reach strong speeds in
the Gulf of Honduras on Wed night and continue to pulse at night
through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical Bermuda-Azores High continues to dominate the
Atlantic. A ridge extends along 27N in the western basin. North of
the ridge, winds are moderate to fresh from the SW with 4-7 ft
seas. South of the ridge, winds are gentle to moderate from the
SE with 4-6 ft seas. In the central Atlantic, winds are gentle to
moderate from the E with a recent altimeter pass confirming seas
are 5-7 ft north of 20N, and 6-8 ft south of 20N. In the eastern
Atlantic, winds are moderate to fresh from the NE with 6-8 ft
seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Azores high will continue to
extend a ridge across the region. This will maintain moderate to
fresh east to southeast winds mainly S of 25N during the forecast
period, except N of Hispaniola where winds will reach strong
speeds at night Tue and Wed. Moderate to fresh southwest winds
north of 29N associated with the passage of a frontal boundary
north of the area will diminish slightly on Tue and continue
through Thu. Afterwards, these winds become mainly gentle
southeast to south through Fri night.

$$
Flynn
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