[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110505
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jul 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 33W from
20N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 08N-10N between 33W-36W.

A eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 65W from
20N southward, moving W around 15 to 20 kt. No significant deep
convection is present with this tropical wave.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 81W, from
20N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. A cluster of moderate to
isolated strong convection is ahead of the wave axis from 12N to
15N between 81W and 85W. This convective activity is affecting
parts of Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to
a tropical wave axis near 10N33W. The ITCZ begins just west of
the tropical waves axis near 09N35W to 08N46W to the coast of
Guyana at 08N59W. In addition to convection associated with the
Atlantic tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is noted
from 05N-10N between 15W-30W, and from 06N-09N between 50W-54W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge continues to dominate the Gulf waters supporting
mainly light and gentle winds, except moderate to locally fresh
southerly winds over the far NW Gulf, and just W of the Yucatan
peninsula where winds are blowing from the NE. Some convective
activity is enhancing winds in this area. Seas are generally 3 ft
or less. A surface trough has developed over the NE Gulf and
extends from the Florida panhandle near 30N85W to 24N88W.
Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are on either
side of the trough axis, covering much of the eastern Gulf waters.
A band of numerous showers and thunderstorms, associated with a
stationary front, is over the N Gulf states affecting from the
western Florida panhandle to the upper Texas coast.

For the forecast, surface ridging extending across the basin will
maintain light to gentle return flow E of 90W through the forecast
period, except over the far NE basin where the above mentioned
trough will support moderate to fresh SW winds. Gentle to moderate
winds W of 90W will increase to moderate to fresh speeds early
today and continue through Thu night as a broad area of low pressure
develops over Texas and NE Mexico. Light to gentle winds are
expected basin-wide on Fri, except over the Bay of Campeche where
winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough coming off the Yucatan
peninsula during the night hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High located
well northeast of the area and the Colombian Low supports fresh to
strong NE to E trades across much of the central Caribbean. Seas
are 8 to 10 ft within these winds based on altimeter data. Mainly
moderate trades and seas in the 5 to 7 ft range prevails in the
eastern Caribbean while gentle NE winds are noted over the NW
Caribbean with seas of 3 to 5 ft.

An upper-level low now spinning over the NW Caribbean continues
to support the development of showers and thunderstorms across
parts of Cuba and the NW Bahamas. This system will also continue
to aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms over South
Florida. The upper-level low will move into the Gulf of Mexico
later today or tonight.

For the forecast, strong high pressure centered over the north-
central Atlantic extending a ridge to the northern Caribbean will
maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across the E basin, and
fresh to strong winds in the central and portions of the SW basin
through Fri night. These winds will be modulated by a pair of
tropical waves moving across the area. Gentle to moderate winds in
the NW Caribbean will increase to moderate to fresh on Tue, and
reach strong speeds in the Gulf of Honduras on Tue night, continuing
through Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical Bermuda-Azores High continues to dominate the
Atlantic forecast waters, with the associated ridge extending
toward the Bahamas and Florida. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E
trades are occurring between the ridge and the ITCZ. Seas are 6-8
ft south of 22N and 4-5 ft north of 22N. Strong to locally near
gale force northerly winds are between the Canary Islands with
moderate or rough seas. An altimeter pass across this area shows
seas of 8 to 9 ft. The Saharan Air layer from CIMSS, and the
GOES16 RGB dust imagery indicate substantial amount of African dust
east of 62W, particularly across most of the tropical North Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High will continue
to extend a ridge southwestward across the region, which will
maintain moderate to fresh easterly winds mainly S of 25N during
the forecast period. Moderate to fresh SW winds N of 29N associated
with the passage of a frontal boundary N of the area will diminish
slightly on Tue and continue through Thu. Afterwards, these winds
become mainly gentle SE to S through Fri night.

$$
GR
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net