[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081607
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jul 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A localized gale force wind warning remains active in the Gulf of
Venezuela. These conditions will soon improve below gale force,
but may regenerate overnight. Please refer to the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast product issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 19W from 07N to
17N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 07N to 13N, between 15W and 21W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 45W from 06N to
19N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 10N to 12N, between 42W and 45W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends along 63W from 08N to
19N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 09N to 11N, between 60W and 63W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends along 84W from 09N to
22N, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed
from 09N to 21N, between 77W and 87W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 09N28W. The ITCZ continues from 09N28W to 07N43W, then resumes
W of a tropical wave from 05N51W to 09N60W. Convection is isolated
and weak around these boundaries, outside of tropical wave
activity.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge with a relaxed pressure gradient is causing
favorable marine conditions across the Gulf. Winds are light to
gentle across the basin with 1-3 ft seas. A few weak showers are
observed in the Bay of Campeche and NE Gulf.

For the forecast, the high pressure ridge across the northern
Gulf will shift south to along 28N through Sat, then shift south
to the central Gulf through early next week. Gentle to moderate
winds and slight seas will prevail through this time. NE to E
winds will pulse to fresh each evening and night along the NW
Yucatan peninsula through Fri and to moderate Sat through Mon.
Fresh SE winds will develop in the eastern Bay of Campeche and
south-central Gulf late Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the Gulf of Venezuela.

Please read the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
two waves moving across the Caribbean.

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure
in the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong easterly winds
across the central Caribbean with 7-10 ft seas. Easterly winds
are moderate to fresh in the eastern Caribbean with 4-7 ft seas.
In the Northwest Caribbean, winds moderate from the E-SE with 3-6
ft seas.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will weaken some allowing
for gale force winds in the Gulf of Venezuela to diminish to
strong to near gale by early this afternoon, however, winds are
expected to pulse back up to gale-force tonight for a few hours. A
tropical wave that extends from western Cuba to eastern Costa
Rica will move across the rest of the western Caribbean through
early this evening. Fresh winds prevail behind the wave over the
central Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the area in the
wake of the wave. Winds and seas will diminish significantly
across the basin this weekend, then increase from Mon afternoon
through Tue night as the next tropical wave moves across the
eastern and central Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for more details on the
two waves moving across the Atlantic.

The Bermuda-Azores high dominates the pattern. In the western
Atlantic, gentle southerly winds increase to moderate
southeasterlies south of 27N, and fresh easterlies south of 22N.
Seas gradually increase southward from 4-8 ft. In the central
Atlantic, gentle winds increase to moderate to fresh easterlies
south of 29N. Seas gradually increase southward from 3-8 ft. In
the eastern Atlantic, winds are moderate to fresh from the N-NE
with 5-8 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge along 29N
extending westward to northern Florida will change little through
tonight, with the associated gradient maintaining moderate to
fresh trade winds S of 25N. Winds will pulse to strong off the
northern coast of Hispaniola in the evenings and at night through
Sat. The ridge will shift S to along 27N over the weekend as a
cold front approaches from the NW. The front will move slowly
southeastward and stall off the southeastern U.S. coast. Fresh SW
winds ahead of the front over the far NW forecast waters will
shift northeast of the area late Sun night into Mon as front
dissipates. High pressure will build in the wake of the front by
Sun.

$$
Flynn
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