[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071622
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jul 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1615 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 39W, S of 20N,
and moving W around 15 kt. There are some weak showers near the
trough axis.

Another Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W, S of 21N,
and moving W around 15 kt. Dry Saharan dust continues to suppress
the development of any significant convection near the wave.

A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis extending from 23N74W to
07N81W, from the SE Bahamas, across eastern Cuba, Jamaica and
central Panama. The wave is moving W at 10-15 kt. A few showers
are noted near the wave axis around Jamaica and the Tiburon
peninsula of Haiti.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania
near 19N16W to 10N23W. The ITCZ stretches from 10N28W to 06N38W,
then resumes W of a tropical wave from 06N40W to 07N55W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 04N to 09N and E of 25W. Similar
convection is seen from 03N to 07N and between 31W and 38W.

The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends
from coastal NW Colombia near 12N74W, across the SW Caribbean and
the Caribbean coast of Panama near 09N78W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted within 100 nm of the coasts
of Panama and Costa Rica.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface trough extends from the Big Bend region of Florida
near 30N83W to 23N87W and a few showers are present near the
axis. The rest of the basin is dominated by a weak 1017 mb high
pressure system near 28N87W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds
prevail across the basin, except for locally moderate winds in the
central Bay of Campeche. Seas of 3-4 ft are found in the Bay of
Campeche and 1-3 ft in the remainder of the Gulf.

For the forecast, a surface ridge across the N Gulf will reorganize
along 28N Fri through Sat then sink S and across the central
Gulf through Mon. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will
prevail through this time. A low-level trough extending from
near 29N83W to 23N86W will move slowly westward and weaken
through tonight, accompanied by scattered moderate convection. NE
to E winds will pulse to fresh each evening and night along the NW
Yucatan peninsula through Fri and to moderate Sat and Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ Section above for details on
convection in the SW Caribbean. Refer to the Tropical Waves
section above for details on the wave extending across the
central Caribbean.

The rest of the Caribbean Sea is experiencing fairly tranquil
weather conditions. The basin is in the southwestern periphery of
the broad subtropical ridge located north of the Azores. The
pressure gradient between this system and lower pressures over
northern South America result in fresh to strong trades in the
south-central Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring off
northern Colombia. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. The rest of
the central and eastern Caribbean experience moderate to fresh
easterly winds, except for occasionally strong trades off southern
Hispaniola. Seas in the described waters are 4-6 ft. The remainder
of the Caribbean enjoys moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-5
ft.

For the forecast, a tropical wave that extends from eastern Cuba
southwestward to central Panama will move across the western
Caribbean through Fri night. Winds and seas will increase to
fresh to strong today through Sat over the south- central
Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the area in the wake of
this tropical wave. Winds and seas will diminish significantly
across the basin Sat night through Sun night, then increase late
Mon and Mon night as another tropical wave moves across the
eastern and central Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A broad upper level disturbance centered N of Puerto Rico near
23N67W continues to produce scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection S of 25N and between 60W and 71W. The disturbance will
maintain a westward track over the next day or so, helping to
induce showers and thunderstorms in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and SE
Bahamas this afternoon and evening. Moderate to locally fresh
E-SE winds are found W of 55W and S of 26N, with seas of 4-7 ft.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a large high
pressure system of 1041 mb near 49N19W, supporting fairly tranquil
weather conditions across the basin. The tranquil conditions are
accentuated by a broad region of Saharan dust moving across the
Atlantic and suppressing the development of showers and
thunderstorms. The pressure gradient as the result of the strong
subtropical ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics and NW
Africa allow for fresh to strong NE-E winds S of a line from the
Moroccan coast near 31N10W to the Leeward Islands near 19N63W.
Seas in the described waters are 6-9 ft. The strongest winds and
highest seas are occurring in the E Atlantic N of 20N and E of
25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-5 ft
prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge extending from the NE
Atlantic SW to the central Atlantic then W along 29N to northern
Florida will persist through Fri night to produce moderate to
fresh trade winds south of 25N. Winds will pulse to strong off the
northern coast of Hispaniola each evening and night through Sat.
A cold front will move slowly SE off the SE U.S. coast over the
weekend and produce fresh SW winds across the far NW waters early
Sat. These fresh SW winds will shift eastward to between 68W and
78W Sat night through Sun night before shifting NE of the area Mon
and Mon night.

$$
Delgado
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