[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060520
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jul 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The eastern Atlantic tropical wave was repositioned eastward and
is now located near 27W from 17N southward, and moving W at 10-
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N-13N
between 22W-26W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68W from 23N
southward to Venezuela, moving W around 15 kt. No significant
deep convection is occurring in association with this wave.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 91W, now inland over
Central America and extending S into the East Pacific, moving W
at 15-20 kt. No significant deep convection is noted over the
Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico waters in association with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends from Senegal near 16N17W to 08N26W. The
ITCZ extends from 08N28W to French Guiana near 05N53W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection extends from 07N-10N
between 30W-53W. The eastern extension of the East Pacific
monsoon trough reaches from Costa Rica near 10N83W to Colombia
near 10N74W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N-14N
west of 82W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak ridging extends over the N Gulf this evening with a 1017 mb
high centered at 30N89W. Winds across the Gulf are gentle to
moderate easterlies. Seas are 1-3 ft across the Gulf. A surface
trough extends from S Florida near 26N80W to the Florida Straits
near 23N82W with scattered moderate convection noted between 23N-
28N from 80W-83W.

For the forecast, the surface ridge extending across the
northern Gulf will drift northward to along 30N through Wed.
Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail through
this time. The low level trough across S Florida and the Straits
of Florida will move slowly westward into the SE Gulf late
tonight through Wed with active weather expected ahead of it. NE
to E winds will pulse to fresh each evening and night along the
NW Yucatan peninsula through Fri and to moderate Sat and Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A moderate pressure gradient between a 1026 mb Bermuda High near
33N52W and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean monsoon trough
is producing fresh to strong NE winds over the central and W
Caribbean with gentle to moderate E trades elsewhere. Seas are 7-
9 ft in the central and W Caribbean and 3-6 ft elsewhere. An
extended tropical upper-tropospheric trough extends from 22N63W
to the W Caribbean near 18N87W. The TUTT is promoting scattered
showers over the Lesser Antilles this evening.

For the forecast, marine conditions will continue to improve
across the western and central Caribbean tonight through Wed
behind the exiting tropical wave along 91W. A tropical wave in
the eastern Caribbean along 68W will move across the rest of the
eastern Caribbean tonight, and across the central Caribbean Wed
through Thu night. Winds and seas will increase to fresh to
strong Thu over the south-central Caribbean as high pressure
builds north of the area in the wake of this tropical wave.
These winds are expected to diminish to mainly fresh Sat through
Sun night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging extends from 32N80W to a 1026 mb Bermuda High
near 33N52W.  The weak pressure gradient from the ridge to lower
pressure along the ITCZ is forcing only gentle to fresh trades
across the tropical N Atlantic.  Seas are 6-8 ft south of 25N
east of 65W and 4-6 ft elsewhere. The aforementioned TUTT is
inducing a surface trough from 28N63W to 22N66W with isolated
moderate convection from 18N-25N between 57W-62W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge extending from the
central Atlantic to northern Florida along 30N will persist
through the rest of the week. A low-level trough across South
Florida and the Straits of Florida tonight will move west into
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico early Wed morning. Active
weather will accompany this trough tonight, while fresh winds
and increasing seas will build westward and to south of 24N
behind the trough through Wed. Winds will pulse to strong off
the northern coast of Hispaniola each evening and night through
the period.


$$
Landsea
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