[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050409
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Jul 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 25W from 02N to
18N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 05N to 10N, between 15W and 30W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends along 62W from 06N to
22N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
behind the wave from 10N to 12N, between 55W and 63W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends along 83W from 08N to
22N, drifting W at less than 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 10N to 22N, between 78W and 87W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 07N25W. The ITCZ extends from 07N28W to 05N54W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed along the monsoon trough
from 05N to 10N, between 15W and 30W and along the ITCZ from 03N
to 06N, between 40W and 50W

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and thunderstorms along SW Caribbean.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure in the NE Gulf and a relaxed pressure gradient
are causing favorable marine conditions across the basin. Winds
are moderate or less from the E-SE and seas are slight.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will extend across the northern
Gulf through Tue night before drifting northward to along 30N
through mid week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will
prevail through this time. NE to E winds will pulse to fresh each
evening and night along the NW Yucatan peninsula through Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
details about convection in the Caribbean Sea.

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and a 1009 mb low
in the SW Caribbean is generating fresh to strong E winds through
the central basin, where seas are 8-11 ft. Winds are moderate in
the E Caribbean with 5-8 ft seas. Winds are gentle to moderate in
the NW Caribbean with 3-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, a strong tropical wave across the western
Caribbean will move into Central America and across the Gulf of
Honduras tonight, then into the Yucatan Peninsula Mon night.
Behind the wave, a surge of fresh to strong winds and high seas
will move across the western Caribbean waters through Tue morning
then gradually diminish into mid-week. The next tropical wave will
move across the eastern Caribbean Tue and across the central
Caribbean Wed and Thu. Winds and seas will increase again Thu over
the south-central Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the
area following this tropical wave.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A 1027 mb high pressure located in the central Atlantic near
32N50W extends a ridge westward. In the western Atlantic, gentle
SE winds become moderate easterlies south of 27N. Seas are 4-6
ft. In the central Atlantic, gentle E winds increase to moderate
south of 29N, where seas are 5-7 ft. In the eastern Atlantic,
moderate NE winds increase to fresh south of the Canary Islands.
Seas are 6-8 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge extending from the central
Atlantic to northeast Florida will persist through the week. A low
level trough along 77W across the central Bahamas will shift W-NW
and reach 80W and SE Florida Tue morning, then into the SE Gulf
of Mexico by Tue evening. Fresh winds, rough seas and active
weather will accompany this trough, while fresh winds and
increasing seas will build westward and to S of 24N behind the
trough through Wed. Winds will pulse to strong off the northern
coast of Hispaniola each evening and night through the period.

$$
Flynn
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