[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032315
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jul 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave has been introduced to this analysis, with
axis extending along 16W from 03N-18N, moving W at 10-15 kt.
Scattered showers are noted over the southern portion of the
wave.

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 46W, south of 18N
and moving W around 15-20 kt. This wave is embedded in a dry and
stable environment and no significant convection is noted with it
at this time.

A robust Caribbean tropical wave has its axis from 25N72W to
09N81W, moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is occurring from 15N-24N between 67W-78W. The strongest
convection is affecting Hispaniola and the offshore waters. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass depict fresh to strong winds
N of 13N between 66W and 76W. Seas of 7-10 ft are expected in
the described waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal
near 14N17W to 08N21W. The ITCZ extends from 08N21W to 06N44W,
then resumes W of a tropical wave from 06N48W to 06N57W.
Scattered showers are noted within 100 nm on either side of the
monsoon trough mainly E of 30W. Similar activity is noted W of
48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Divergence aloft is triggering some shower activity over the
Florida peninsula and extending into the NE Gulf of Mexico,
especially N of 26N and E of 87W. The rest of the basin is
dominated by a weak pressure regime that maintains fairly
tranquil weather conditions. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of
2-4 ft prevail across the Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will extend across the
northern Gulf through Tue night before drifting north of the area
through mid week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will
prevail through this time. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse at
night near the NW Yucatan peninsula through Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above for details on the
active wave in the central Caribbean Sea.

Outside of the influence of the strong tropical wave in the
central Caribbean Sea, fresh to occasionally strong trades are
found in the eastern Caribbean, while moderate to locally fresh
trades are present in the NW and SW Caribbean. Seas are 4-7 ft in
the eastern Caribbean and 3-6 ft in the NW and SW Caribbean. The
weather conditions are fairly tranquil in the remainder of the
basin, except for an area of showers and isolated thunderstorms S
of 13N and W of 80W, affecting the waters off SE Nicaragua, Costa
Rica and Panama.

For the forecast, the strong tropical wave extending will
continue moving quickly westward across the western Caribbean
through Mon, followed by a broad surge of strong winds and high
seas. Winds and seas will then diminish over most of the basin
through mid week as the tropical wave moves west of the basin.
Looking ahead, another tropical wave will move across the
northeast Caribbean Tue and into the central Caribbean Wed and
Thu. Winds and seas will start to increase again by Thu over the
south- central Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the
area following this tropical wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above for details on the
waves moving across the basin.

The western tropical Atlantic (W of 55W) remains fairly tranquil
under the influence of the strong subtropical ridge north of the
Azores. Outside of the influence of the strong tropical wave in
the SE Bahamas, moderate to fresh easterly winds are evident S of
25N and W of 55W, and light to gentle anticyclonic winds N of
25N. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by the
aforementioned ridge and an outbreak of Saharan dust continues to
move westward across the region, helping to suppress the
development of convection. Moderate to occasionally fresh
easterly winds prevail between 20W and 55W, along with seas of
4-7 ft. Over the far NE Atlantic, mainly E of 20W and N of 20N,
fresh to strong N-NE winds affect the waters off the Canary
Islands, Western Sahara and Morocco. Seas in the area are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge will persist through the
week. The northern portion of a strong tropical wave currently
over eastern Cuba is supporting strong winds and rough seas near
the Turks and Caicos Islands and southern Bahamas. These winds
and seas will diminish through tonight as the wave moves
westward, but strong winds may still pulse off the northern coast
of Hispaniola through Tue night.

$$
ERA
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