[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 030234
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Colin Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032022
1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022

Colin continues to become less organized, with only minimal
convection currently occurring and surface observations showing
that the circulation is losing definition.  Offshore buoys have
reported winds of 20-25 kt for the past several hours, suggesting
that there are no tropical-storm-force winds left over water.
Based on this, Colin is downgraded to a tropical depression, and all
of the coastal warnings are discontinued.

The current weakening trend is expected to continue due to
increasing northwesterly vertical wind shear and dry air
entrainment, and Colin is now forecast to degenerate to a remnant
low pressure area within the next 12 h.  The remnants are forecast
to dissipate after 24 h as they merge with a frontal system over
the northwestern Atlantic.

The initial motion is an somewhat uncertain 055/6 kt.  Colin or its
remnants should continue to move generally northeastward through
eastern North Carolina for the next 12-18 h, and then move out over
the Atlantic before merging with the aforementioned frontal system.


KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Rough surf and rip currents are likely to continue along the
North Carolina coast through Sunday.

2.  Scattered areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flash
flooding across coastal portions of North Carolina through Sunday
morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 34.4N  77.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  03/1200Z 35.2N  76.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  04/0000Z 36.2N  73.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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