[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 021449
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Colin Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032022
1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022

The center of Colin remains just inland over eastern South Carolina
this morning, but nearly all of the heavy rains and strong winds are
off the coastline of South and North Carolina. This asymmetric
structure is due to about 20 kt of northwesterly shear, and since
the shear is not expected to abate, the worst weather conditions
should remain along and off the coast throughout the day and into
Sunday. The initial intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory.
Colin's future looks pretty short. An approaching cold front will
likely cause the circulation to become increasingly elongated
tonight and Sunday, and the system is expected to dissipate or merge
with the front by early Monday. Little change in intensity is
expected prior to dissipation.

The storm is moving northeastward at 6 kt. A slightly faster
northeast to east-northeast motion is expected, which should take
the center of Colin along or just offshore of the Carolina coast
during the next 24 hours, followed by a track over the western
Atlantic. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the
guidance envelope.


KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area along the North Carolina coast this afternoon into Sunday.

2.  Rough surf and rip currents are likely to continue along the
North Carolina coast through Sunday.

3.  Areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding
across portions of coastal North Carolina through Sunday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 33.7N  79.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 12H  03/0000Z 34.3N  78.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 24H  03/1200Z 35.2N  76.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER PAMLICO SOUND
 36H  04/0000Z 36.1N  74.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER ATLANTIC OCEAN
 48H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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