[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020931
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jul 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

As of 02/0900 UTC, Tropical Storm Bonnie is inland over Nicaragua
centered near 11.3N 85.1W, or 40 nm NE of Liberia Costa Rica
moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 65 nm NE of the
center. 12 ft seas are within 75 nm from the center in the
northeastern quadrant. Heavy rain is mainly occurring over
southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica with scattered
moderate convection in the Caribbean from 11N to 13N between 81W
and the coast of Nicaragua. Bonnie will spend the morning moving
across southern Nicaragua before emerging over the eastern Pacific
Ocean later today. Bonnie is expected to strengthen again in the
Pacific, with the forecast reaching hurricane strength by early
next week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is in the Atlantic near 36W, from 02N
to 17N, moving west at 15 kt. Associated convection is weak.

The axis of a strong tropical wave is near 64W over the eastern
Caribbean, from 18N southward, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 13N to 17N between 61W and
66W. Fresh to strong winds extend approximately 2-3 degrees on
either side of the northern portion of the wave, from 14N to 20N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N17W to 10N28W. The ITCZ continues from 10N28W to 10N33W, where
the convergent flow is disrupted by a tropical wave. The ITCZ
continues west of the wave from 07N39W to 04N51W, along NE
Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 11N
between 22W and 26W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge extends from high pressure near Bermuda
across the Gulf, with lower pressure over Mexico. This pattern is
supporting moderate S winds in the western Gulf and moderate SE
winds in the southern Gulf. Seas are 3-5 ft in these areas.
Conditions are more favorable in the NE basin, with gentle winds
and slight seas.

For the forecast, a surface ridge extends across the Gulf tonight
along 28N and will dominate the Gulf waters through early next
week to produce mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night near the
NW Yucatan peninsula through Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
Tropical Storm Bonnie.

As Tropical Storm Bonnie clears the basin, fresh to strong
easterlies continue to dominate the majority of the central and
eastern basin with 7-10 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
over the NW Caribbean with 4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Bonnie is inland across Nicaragua and
exiting away from the southwest Caribbean. Bonnie will continue
westward and emerge across the Pacific waters by this afternoon.
Seas across the western Caribbean associated with Bonnie will
gradually subside today. A strong tropical wave located along 65W
will continue moving quickly westward across the eastern
Caribbean Sea through tonight and across the central Caribbean
Sun and Sun night. Any development of this system should be slow
to occur. Expect a broad surge of strong winds and high seas
across the Atlantic and Caribbean waters with this wave as it
moves across the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active off NE Florida
associated with newly formed Tropical Storm Colin over South
Carolina. Southerly winds are moderate to fresh in this area. A
1024 mb high pressure near Bermuda dominates the pattern in the
remainder of the western Atlantic with gentle to moderate
easterlies increasing to fresh south of 22N. Seas are 4-6 ft north
of 22N and 6-10 ft south of 22N. In the central Atlantic, winds
are generally moderate from the east with 5-7 ft seas. Winds are
also moderate in the eastern Atlantic, but predominately from the
NE.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge remains centered
across the central Atlantic N of 30N and will continue to
dominate the forecast waters through the upcoming weekend. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and exiting TS Bonnie will
support pulsing fresh to strong NE to E winds N of Hispaniola and
in the Windward Passage today. Then, a strong tropical wave will
move across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea over the weekend
and bring a broad surge of strong winds and high seas across the
waters S of 24N through Sun.

$$
Flynn
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