[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT32 KNHC 012033
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
500 PM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022

...BONNIE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT...
...HEAVY RAINS HAVE BEGUN IN NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 82.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres Colombia
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and
Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
6 to 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica, as well as the Pacific coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 82.5 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and a continued
westward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
through Saturday night.  A west-northwestward motion is expected to
begin on Sunday and continue into Monday.  On the forecast track,
the system will move across southern Nicaragua and northern Costa
Rica tonight, and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on
Saturday. The system will then move offshore of but parallel to the
coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico Saturday
through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Bonnie is expected to strengthen before it makes
landfall tonight.  After landfall, short term weakening is likely,
but Bonnie is expected to restrengthen later this weekend and early
next week over the eastern Pacific.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Bonnie will produce heavy rain
across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica through Saturday. The
following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This
rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected over San Andres
Island this afternoon and evening.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected to reach the Tropical Storm Warning area along the
Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica this evening and will
spread westward to the Pacific coast within the warning areas
overnight.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hogsett
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