[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 012033
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
500 PM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022


Bonnie is approaching the coast of Central America.  Satellite
images indicate that the storm is becoming better organized, with
deep convection increasing near the center and banding features
becoming more prominent in all quadrants.  The Dvorak estimates
from TAFB and SAB were 3.0/45 kt and 2.0/30 kt, respectively, and
based on these estimates and the improvement in structure, the
initial wind speed is increased a little to 40 kt.

Bonnie is now moving due west at 270/15 kt, and this motion is
expected to continue until landfall late tonight near the
Nicaragua and Costa Rica border.  Bonnie is forecast to emerge over
the eastern Pacific waters on Saturday, and it is forecast to turn
west-northwestward shortly thereafter and track parallel to the
coast of Central America and Mexico for the next several days.  The
models have generally changed little this cycle, and the new NHC
track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one. Given
the expected proximity to land, interests in coastal El Salvador,
Guatemala and southwestern Mexico should continue to monitor
Bonnie's progress during the next several days.

The tropical storm only has about 6 hours to strengthen before it
reaches the coast.  However, the environment remains favorable and
given the improved structure, strengthening seems likely during
that time.  An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Bonnie prior to landfall. Although some weakening is
likely late tonight and early Saturday when the storm passes across
Central America, it is expected to remain a tropical cyclone.
Gradual intensification is expected later in the weekend and next
week as the cyclone remains in a low-shear and warm SST environment
over the eastern Pacific.  The NHC intensity forecast shows a
slightly faster rate of intensification than the previous one and
lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Nicaragua and Costa
Rica today into Saturday. Areas of life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides are expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected on San Andres during the
next few hours, along the Caribbean coasts of Costa Rica and
Nicaragua within the Tropical Storm Warning areas later this
evening, and along the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua
overnight and early Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 11.3N  82.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 11.2N  84.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 24H  02/1800Z 11.3N  86.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  03/0600Z 11.6N  89.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 12.3N  92.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  04/0600Z 13.2N  94.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 14.1N  97.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 15.6N 103.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  06/1800Z 16.4N 108.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hogsett
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