[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT32 KNHC 011157
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022

...DISTURBANCE ALMOST A TROPICAL STORM...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA
LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 79.9W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua/Costa Rica border to Laguna de Perlas Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres Colombia
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to Puerto Sandino Nicaragua

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica, as well as the Pacific coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system.  A Tropical Storm Warning will likely be
required for portions of the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and
Nicaragua later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
11.5 North, longitude 79.9 West.  The system is moving toward the
west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a continued westward motion with a
gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday
night.  A west-northwestward motion is expected to begin on Sunday
and continue into Monday.  On the forecast track, the system will
move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today, cross southern
Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica tonight, and emerge over the
eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday.  The system will then move
offshore of but parallel to the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala,
and southern Mexico Saturday through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast today while the system approaches
the coast of Central America.  Some weakening is expected tonight
while the system crosses Nicaragua and Costa Rica, but
restrengthening is anticipated Saturday through Monday while it
moves over the Pacific Ocean.

Conditions appear conducive for development, and the disturbance is
expected to become a tropical storm today while slowing down over
the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across Nicaragua and Costa Rica today into Saturday. The
following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated higher totals
around 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to result in areas of
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area in Nicaragua this evening or tonight.  Tropical storm
conditions are expected over San Andres Island today.  Tropical
storm conditions are expected to reach the Tropical Storm Warning
area along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica by this
evening and will spread westward to the Pacific coast within the
warning areas by Saturday morning.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hogsett
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