[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 010852
TCDAT2

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
500 AM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022

The disturbance is finally looking like a bona fide tropical
cyclone.  Deep convection has blossomed overnight in two primary
bands around the potential center.  But whether there is a
well-defined center yet is the million dollar question.  The system
is gradually slowing down, so if a center has not formed yet, it
should form very soon.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
mission is scheduled for later this morning to help determine if the
disturbance has become a tropical storm.

The disturbance is moving just south of due west and slightly slower
at 265/16 kt.  The system is forecast to lose a little more latitude
today and slow down further while it approaches the coast of Central
America, and it is expected to move across southern Nicaragua or
northern Costa Rica tonight and emerge over the eastern Pacific
waters on Saturday.  After that time, strong mid-level ridging will
remain established over the Gulf of Mexico, and the system is
expected to turn west-northwestward in 2 to 3 days. This track
essentially runs parallel to the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala,
and Mexico through the end of the forecast period, about 100-200
n mi off the coast.  The track guidance has nudged slightly
northward during the time the system is over the Pacific Ocean, with
the ECMWF model the closest to the coast of Mexico, and the new NHC
track forecast is just a little north of the previous forecast on
days 4 and 5.  Given the system's potential proximity to land,
interests all along the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
southern and southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system.

The system has 12-24 hours to strengthen in an environment of low
vertical shear and over warm 28 degrees Celsius waters before it
reaches Central America.  The official intensity forecast at 24
hours, around the time the system reaches land, is a little higher
than the available guidance to account for uncertainty in the
initial analysis and to maintain continuity from the previous
forecast.  Some weakening is likely as the system moves over land,
but restrengthening is anticipated over the Pacific waters where
vertical shear is expected to remain low and waters will still be
warm.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Nicaragua and Costa
Rica today into Saturday. Areas of life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides are expected.

2. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area
along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua this evening or tonight.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on San Andres today,
along the Caribbean coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the
Tropical Storm Warning areas by this evening, and are possible
within the Tropical Storm Watch areas along the Pacific coasts of
Costa Rica and Nicaragua on Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 11.5N  79.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  01/1800Z 11.3N  81.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  02/0600Z 11.3N  84.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 36H  02/1800Z 11.3N  86.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
 48H  03/0600Z 11.7N  89.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  03/1800Z 12.4N  91.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 13.3N  94.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 15.1N 100.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 16.6N 105.8W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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