[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010413
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Feb 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N08W
to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W to 01N49W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ west of 22W and
extending 180 nm north and south of the ITCZ west of 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak low pressure has formed off the Texas coast near 28N96W
This system is causing numerous showers and thunderstorms in the
NW gulf and along the Texas gulf coast. This system is generating
a strong breeze and rough seas up to 10 ft. The remainder of the
basin is dominated by a fresh to strong southeasterly breeze and
moderate seas.

For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong SE to S winds will
spread across much of the Gulf through mid-week as the high
pressure moves NE of the basin. The next cold front is expected to
push off the Texas coast on Thu bringing another round of strong
to gale force northerly winds and building seas across the western
gulf Thu night and Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure near Florida is maintaining the pressure gradient
with a low over Colombia generating strong NE winds extending from
the Windward Passage to Jamaica and fresh to locally strong winds
south of Cuba. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades
prevail. Seas are 4-6 ft in the western Caribbean and 2-4 ft in
the eastern basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will continue across
the Windward Passage and off Colombia, especially at night,
through Thu night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in
the lee of Cuba through Wed night. Similar winds are expected in
the Gulfs of Honduras and Venezuela Wed night and Thu night. Fresh
to strong winds are also forecast south of Hispaniola Thu night.
Mainly moderate trades will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 mb high pressure from the Gulf of Mexico has entered the
subtropical western Atlantic tonight causing conditions to
improve off the N Florida coast. Buoys are now reporting a light
to gentle breeze and slight seas north of West Palm Beach. South
of 27N, this same feature is generating a moderate to fresh
easterly breeze impacting the Florida Straits and Old Bahama
Channel. A stationary front extending from 31N55W to Hispaniola
remains in place with a fresh NE breeze to the west and strong SW
winds observed roughly 180 nm east of the front along a surface
trough. Rough seas up to 12 ft are observed with 8 ft seas
extending as far south as 17N near the Lesser Antilles. Scattered
moderate convection with embedded thunderstorms is noted along the
surface trough. Farther east, a 1019 mb cut-off low pressure near
26N34W is generating scattered moderate convection extending
roughly 210 nm in all directions. Elsewhere in the central and
eastern Atlantic, ridging from the Azores high dominates the
pattern with winds generally moderate to fresh from the E to NE.
Moderate seas in the 4 to 8 ft range prevail across the region.

For the forecast W of 65W, the conditions associated with the
stationary front will continue through the end of the week over
that region. Large seas in the wake of the front will gradually
subside E of the Bahamas tonight. Trade winds will increase S of
25N Wed as the pressure gradient increases. Looking ahead, a front
over the central Atlantic may push fresh to strong E winds over
the waters east of 73W Thu into Fri. Seas will build NE of the
Bahamas Wed night into Fri, in accordance with the increasing
winds, with a new approaching swell from the N to NE Thu through
the upcoming weekend.

$$
FLYNN
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