[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 302349
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL 0005 UTC Mon Jan 31 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2340 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Liberia near 05N10W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W
to 03N30W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 01N to 05N between 05W and 16W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 02S to 08N between 18W and 41W, and
from 01S to 03N W of 44W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong surface high pressure dominates the Gulf waters being
anchored by a 1027 mb high near 27N89W and a 1026 mb high near
28N83W. This is supporting light to gentle variable winds across
most of the basin, except for the far western gulf or W of 94W
where moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds are noted. Moderate
to locally fresh SW to W winds are observed over the NE gulf
coastal waters. Seas across the area are mainly 3 to 4 ft, except
in the Yucatan channel where seas are in the 4 to 5 ft range.

For the forecast, the high center currently located over the
north-central Gulf will move eastward on Mon, then a ridge will
persist across the basin through Thu. Fresh to strong southerly
return flow will set up across the western Gulf tonight into Mon
morning. These winds will spread eastward across the Gulf region
through Thu as the pressure gradient tightens between the ridge
and lower pressures over Texas and NE Mexico. The next cold front
is expected to push off the Texas coast on Thu bringing another
round of gale force northerly winds and building seas across the
western Gulf possibly Thu night and Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening stationary front extends from Haiti to southern
Nicaragua offshore waters. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds follow
the front, except between the front and the coast of Nicaragua
where northerly fresh to strong prevail with seas of 7 to 8 ft.
Seas are 5 to 6 ft elsewhere in the NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong
NE winds are funneling across the Windward Passage with seas to 6
ft. A weaker pressure gradient supports gentle to moderate trade
winds elsewhere with seas to 3 ft.

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate on Mon.
Fresh to strong N to NE winds are expected across the Windward
Passage, mainly at night, through Wed night. Pulsing fresh to
strong winds are also expected near the coast of Colombia, mainly
at night, Mon night through Thu night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches from 31N55W SW to the N of Hispaniola where
it stalls SW to the Nicaragua offshore waters in the Caribbean.
Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and large seas to 11 ft
persist W of the front to 76W, including the approaches to the
Windward Passage. Fresh SW winds are N of 30N off the NE coast of
Florida to 78W with seas to 6 ft.

Fresh to strong winds are occurring near the coast of Morocco
with seas up to 7 ft associated with a weak low captured by the
afternoon scatterometer data. Otherwise, the remainder subtropical
Atlantic waters are under the influence of the Azores high that
extends a ridge to nearly 15N. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics results in a large
region of moderate NE to E winds with seas in the 7 to 8 ft range.

For the forecast W of 65W, the front will become nearly stationary
from 25N65W to Haiti on Mon, then move across the SE waters Tue
through Wed while dissipating. Large seas behind the front will
persist E of the Bahamas through Mon night. An increase in the
pressure gradient across the region is expected to bring fresh to
strong easterly winds and building seas toward the end of the
week.

$$
Ramos
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