[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272321
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jan 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:
A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf Fri morning, then
race through the basin by Fri night, bringing strong to near gale
force winds to much of the basin through Sat. Gales will develop
offshore NE Mexico Fri afternoon and spread south to offshore
Veracruz Fri night. Seas will range between 10 to 15 ft within the
strongest winds. Gales will diminish Sat, with slowly improving
conditions by the start of next week. Please read the latest
Offshore Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT4.shtml for more
details.

Atlantic Gale Warning:
a strong cold front will move off the SE U.S. and bring strong to
near gale force winds to much of the SW N Atlantic basin Fri night
and Sat. Gale winds are likely north of 27N Sat, with seas
ranging between 10 to 17 ft. These conditions will dissipate on
Sun. Please read the latest Offshore Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough remains mostly over W Africa. An ITCZ runs
westward from 02N26W through 01S40W to near the French Guinea-
Brazil border at 04N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is present from the Equator-03N between 35W-50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section above for information on a
Gale Warning.

A surface trough reaches westward from offshore of Tampa,
Florida to the NW Gulf. Another surface trough extends
southwestward from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Channel. A
third surface trough is near the E coast of Mexico along 97W.
These features are triggering scattered showers across much of the
Gulf. Winds across the Gulf are tranquil with seas 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, the surface trough from the Florida Straits to
the Yucatan Channel will drift SE and gradually dissipate through
tonight. The second surface trough extending from west-central
Florida to near 26N92W too will dissipate by tonight. A strong
cold front will move into the NW Gulf Fri morning, then race
through the basin by Fri night, bringing strong to near gale force
winds to much of the basin through Sat. Gales will develop
offshore NE Mexico Fri afternoon and spread S to offshore Veracruz
Fri night. Seas will range between 10 to 15 ft within the
strongest winds. Gales will diminish Sat, with slowly improving
conditions by the start of next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a 1019 mb Bermuda High near 29N64W
and a 1008 mb Colombian Low at 05N77W is producing fresh to strong
NE winds just north of Colombia and tranquil winds elsewhere. Seas
are 7-8 ft just north of Colombia, 4-6 ft elsewhere over the
central and E Caribbean, and 2-4 ft over the NW Caribbean.
Scattered showers are present over the Windward Islands, the W
Caribbean, and the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, pulsing strong winds will prevail offshore
Colombia tonight, with mainly moderate trades expected elsewhere.
A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Sat and the southwest
Caribbean by late Sat, bringing fresh to strong north to
northeast winds and building seas to the basin through the
weekend. Expect fresh to locally strong winds over the Windward
Passage Sun into Mon behind the front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features section above for information on a
Gale Warning.

A cold front curves west-southwestward from near Bermuda across
31N67W to 30N73W, then continues as a stationary front across
central Florida. Farther south, a 1014 mb low is persisting near
the NW Bahamas at 27N76W. These features are causing scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms N of 25N between 67W and
Florida. For the central Atlantic, a weakening stationary front
near 28N60W along with a modest 1015 mb low near 25N52W are
sustaining scattered showers N of 22N between 47W and 63W. Farther
east, a robust upper-level low near 24N43W is generating
scattered showers and thunderstorms from 15N to 28N between 37W
and 45W. To the south, convergent trades near the southern extent
of a surge are triggering scattered moderate convection from 04N
to 10N between 30W and 50W. Strong upper-level winds are streaming
widespread cirrus near the Cabo Verde Islands from 10N to 22N
between the African coast and 34W.

Fresh to strong NE winds with seas at 7 to 10 ft are found N of
the stationary/cold front, N of 29N between 70W and the N
Florida-Georgia coast. Moderate to fresh NE to E trades and seas
of 7 to 11 ft are evident N of 7N between 20W and 50W. Fresh to
strong trades with 7 to 9-ft seas are present from the Equator to
07N between 25W and 52W. Light to gentle with locally moderate
winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will dissipate
through tonight, with winds gradually diminishing. Low pressure
between Florida and Bermuda will move NE of the area by Fri. As it
does, a strong cold front will move off the SE U.S. and bring
strong to near gale force winds to much of the basin Fri
night/Sat. Gale winds are likely N of 27N Sat, with seas ranging
between 10 to 17 ft. These conditions will dissipate on Sun.

$$
Landsea
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