[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jan 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1015 mb low pressure area is
centered near 25N43W. A surface trough extends from 30N43W to the
low to 21N42W. Scattered moderate convection is displaced well E
of the low, from 19N to 27N between 31W and 37W. Gale force mainly
E winds are ongoing within about 120 nm from the center of the low
in the NE semicircle,with a broad area of fresh to strong winds
extending out 180 nm from the center in the N semicircle and 270
nm in the E semicircle. Seas in the area of gales are 11 to 14
ft, with the rest of the region having seas of 8 to 11 ft. This
low is moving W at 10 to 15 kt, and is expected to weaken today.
Thus, associated gales should diminish to strong winds later this
morning. Winds and seas will decrease further by Thu when the low
opens into a trough. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A surface trough extends from 03N08E to 02N03W to 01N18W. Another
surface trough stretches from 07N16N to 02N30W. A third surface
trough is noted from 06N37W to 02N41W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from the equator to 06N
between 22W and 39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Low pressure of 1013 mb is centered in the NE Gulf near 28N87W. A
previous cold front has devolved into a surface trough, and
extends westward from the low to 25N94W. Another surface trough,
remnants of a stationary front, extends E from the low into the
northern Florida peninsula. To the southeast of the low, an
occluded front connects to another low pressure center, of 1012
mb, located near 26N84W. A warm front stretches from this low E
into the central Florida Peninsula, and a cold front extends SW
from this low to the Yucatan Peninsula. A surface trough lags
about 150 nm behind this cold front, in the south-central Gulf.
Convection associated with these features is confined to a band of
moderate convection within 60 nm ahead of the cold front, to the E
of 87W.

NE winds to the N and W of the low in the NE Gulf are strong to
near gale, N of 26N and E of 93W. Elsewhere over much of the Gulf
to behind the cold front, mainly fresh N winds are ongoing.
Finally, ahead of the cold front in the SE Gulf, gentle to
moderate mainly SW winds prevail. Seas in the area of strong to
near gale force winds are 8 to 11 ft, with 5 to 7 ft seas behind
the cold front, and 3 to 5 ft seas ahead of the cold front.

For the forecast, complex low pressure over the eastern Gulf will
weaken and move inland into Florida by tonight, with strong to
near gale force winds in the north-central and NE Gulf gradually
diminishing. A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf Fri,
then race through the basin by Fri night, bringing strong to near
gale force winds to much of the basin into Sat. Gales are likely
offshore Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico, late Fri into Sat behind
this cold front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Caribbean Sea is clear of any notable surface features. 1009
mb low pressure along the northern border of Venezuela and
Colombia combined with high pressure north of the basin is
supporting fresh to strong winds and resultant building 5 to 8 ft
seas in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and
seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the central and eastern
Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are also noted offshore of the
north- central coast of Honduras due to a locally tight pressure
gradient, along with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Gentle to moderate winds
and seas of 2 to 4 ft are across the remainder of the basin. A few
isolated showers on the trade wind flow can't be ruled out over
portions of the eastern and central Caribbean.

For the forecast, pulsing strong winds will prevail offshore
Colombia into the weekend, with fresh winds in the Gulf of
Honduras diminishing tonight. Otherwise, mainly moderate trades
will prevail into the weekend. A cold front will move into the NW
Caribbean Fri night, and bring fresh to strong winds and building
seas through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a
central Atlantic Gale Warning.

A cold front extends from just E of Bermuda to just NE of the
Turks and Caicos islands, where it becomes a dissipating
stationary front that extents to the north coast of Haiti. Behind
the front, a surface trough is noted from just E of Bermuda to
just NE of the Bahamas. Convection previously associated with this
features has diminished. A warm front that extends westward into
the Gulf of Mexico has developed east to offshore the central
Florida peninsula, and scattered moderate convection has developed
north of it, with about 120 nm of the coast. Convection is also
behind enhanced along a surface trough that is noted from the NE
coast of Florida northward about 150 nm. Ahead of the cold front,
N of 27N and W of 50W, fresh SW winds are occurring, with mainly
gentle winds elsewhere. South of the warm front between South
Florida and the Bahamas, moderate southerly winds are increasing.
Seas throughout this portion of the Atlantic are 2 to 4 ft,
lowest within the Bahamas.

Elsewhere across the basin, fresh to strong NE winds prevail E of
35W, with mainly moderate tradewinds to the W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft
in the area of higher winds, 4 to 6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 65W, the slow moving cold front extending
S from E of Bermuda will continue to progress E of the area by
then end of the week, while gradually dissipating from the S.
Another cold front will move S into the area tonight, then stall
along 28N into Thu, before dissipating. Low pressure will also
emerge off the South Florida coast Thu, then meander over the NW
Bahamas into Fri, before lifting northward, as another stronger
cold front moves off the SE U.S. coast Fri night. This front will
bring near gale force winds and rough seas behind it for the
weekend.

$$
KONARIK
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net