[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241651
TWDAT

000
AXNT20 KNHC 241202
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jan 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURES

A strong 1017 mb low pressure that resides along a robust
surface trough extending from 28N27W to 12N41W is supporting
gale-force winds as of 15Z in the METEO-FRANCE forecast area of
CAPE VERDE. These winds have generated swell that is causing
seas of 7 to 9 ft to reach as far west as 40W. In addition, a
broad area of scattered moderate convection is observed on
satellite imagery from 17N to 28N, east of 36W to the W African
coast. The winds are forecast to diminish below gale-force at
25/0000 UTC. Please, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas
Forecast, that is on the website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/m
etarea2 for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends south of the African Continent along
03N to 03W. The ITCZ continues near 03N03W to 05N14W to 00N47W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 08N between
10W and 28W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1012 mb low pressure is analyzed near Corpus Christi, Texas
with an attendant surface trough from 27N97W, extending
southward across the far western Gulf, 50 nm offshore the
Mexican coast. Fresh southerly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft
prevail east of the trough to 91W and S of 27N. Scattered
moderate convection can be found within 120 nm of the western
Gulf Coast, N of 22N and W of 93W. The remainder of the basin
remains under the influence of a 1018 mb high pressure centered
just offshore Louisiana near 29N92W, bringing gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow and seas of 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned low pressure near the Texas
coast will move E across the northern Gulf through Tue night.
This low and its associated cold front will bring strong winds,
higher seas, and thunderstorms to the region. High pressure will
bring more tranquil conditions Wed night through Thu, but
another cold front is forecast to move into the Gulf Fri, and
this may bring gales to portions of the SW Gulf starting Fri
night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA

Strong winds continue within 90 nm of the Colombian coast, due to
the tight gradient between high pressure N of the basin and a
1008 mb low over N Colombia. Seas of 7 to 9 ft are noted in this
region. Elsewhere across the basin, moderate to fresh NE to E
trades dominate, with seas of 3 to 5 ft, and no convection
noted.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure in
the central Atlantic and lower pressure over northern Colombia
will support fresh to strong winds in the south-central
Caribbean through Fri night. Generally gentle to moderate trades
will prevail elsewhere. Otherwise, a cold front is forecast to
enter the NW Caribbean Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features sections for information on the Gale
Warning E of 35W.

A stationary front extends from 31N62W to a 1011mb low pressure
near 26N72W to 23N77W. A surface trough is analyzed ahead of the
front from 30N60W to 24N70W. Fresh to locally strong SW to S
winds are observed behind the front N of 31N and within 180 nm
of the prefrontal boundary, N of 27N, where seas are 8 to 12 ft
and scattered moderate convection is also noted. Otherwise,
winds are generally moderate with seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail W of
50W. Farther E, across the central and tropical Atlantic, mainly
moderate trades dominate with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 65W, the low that is along the
stationary front that extends from S of Bermuda is forecast to
lift NE and out of the area Tue, as the front dissipates.
Another low pressure will move offshore FL Tue night, with
strong to near gale-force northerly winds likely behind its
associated cold front Wed night and Thu.

$$
Nepaul
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