[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230527
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jan 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

The surface pressure gradient between W Atlantic Ocean high
pressure and lower pressure over Colombia will support pulsing
winds to gale force offshore Colombia through this evening. Sea
heights in the Colombian Basin will continue to range from 8 to
11 ft. As the ridge shifts eastward over the weekend, the
pressure gradient will weaken, allowing for gales to end Sun,
although strong winds will continue in the south-central basin
through the middle of next week.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African
continent. The ITCZ extends from the coast of Liberia near
06N10W to 05N25W to 06N37W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 06N between
16W and 29W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure is building south through the western Gulf in the
wake of a slow-moving cold front that stretches from Key West,
Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche. A recent satellite
scatterometer pass found ongoing fresh to strong NE winds behind
the front, except in the northeastern Gulf, flow is mainly
moderate. The strongest flow is around a surface trough in the
western Gulf, stretching from the southern tip of Texas to the
central bay of Campeche. Seas in this region range from 6 to 9
ft. Elsewhere, seas are 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, the cold front will move SE of the area
tonight. Fresh N winds
and seas of 8 to 10 ft will improve into Sun night as high
pressure builds over the region. The next cold front and
associated low pressure is likely to emerge off the Texas coast
Mon night then cross the northern Gulf into the middle of next
week. Strong winds and higher seas are possible over portions of
the northern Gulf in association with this low. Winds may reach
near gale-force over the north central Gulf Mon night and Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
gale warning off the coast of Colombia.

Outside of the Colombian Basin, a recent satellite scatterometer
pass revealed moderate to fresh easterly trades persisting
throughout the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean
with 5-7 ft seas reported by buoys. Conditions continue to be
more favorable in the NW Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds
and slight seas.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between high
pressure in the
western Atlantic and the Colombian low will support strong to
gale conditions offshore Colombia tonight, with fresh to strong
winds elsewhere in the south-central Caribbean through early next
week. Generally moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere.
A weak cold front will enter the far NW Caribbean tonight, stall
from western Cuba to Belize Sun, then dissipate Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the western subtropical Atlantic
from 31N68W to the Florida Keys, bringing moderate to fresh N
winds and 6 to 9 ft seas behind the front. A satellite
scatterometer pass notes mainly fresh breezes between Florida
and the Bahamas. A ridge ahead of the front allows formainly
gentle to moderate return flow and 4 to 6 ft seas for the
remainder of the basin west of 65W.

For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front will move slowly SE
through Tue, then stall over eastern portions of the area.
Behind the front, fresh to locally strong N winds and seas of 8
to 10 ft can be expected into Sun, before the front weakens and
conditions improve. The next cold front is forecast to move
offshore the SE U.S. coast Tue night and may bring strong winds
behind in by Wed night.

Farther east, a mid-upper level trough is generating scattered
moderate convection from 15N to 20N between 31W and 41W.
Otherwise, NE winds are moderate to fresh west of 40W and mainly
moderate east of 40W with 6 to 8 ft seas across the basin.

$$
MORA
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