[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221636
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Jan 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

The surface pressure gradient between W Atlantic Ocean high
pressure and lower pressure over Colombia will support pulsing
winds to gale force offshore Colombia through tonight. Sea
heights in the Colombian Basin will continue to range from 8 to
11 ft. As the ridge shifts eastward over the weekend, the pressure
gradient will weaken, allowing for gales to end Sun, although
strong winds will continue in the south-central basin through the
middle of next week.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends along the northern coast of the Gulf of
Guinea through Liberia to adjacent waters near 06N10W where the
ITCZ continues through 06N30W to the coast of Brazil near 04N51W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed along and north of the
ITCZ in the central Atlantic from 05N to 12N between 29W and 38W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure is building south through the western Gulf in the
wake of a slow moving cold front that stretches from SW Florida
into the eastern Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong northerly winds
are observed behind the front with moderate to rough seas on an
abating trend. Winds remain gentle to moderate ahead of the front
in the SE Gulf, outside of thunderstorms. Isolated moderate
convection is noted along the front in the Bay of Campeche.
Scattered moderate convection is observed along a pre-frontal
trough in the Florida Straits and north of NW Cuba.

For the forecast, the cold front will slowly move across the
southeast Gulf and exit the basin tonight. Marine conditions will
improve across the Gulf through Sun night as high pressure builds
over the region. The next cold front, along with a possible
associated low pressure, is forecast to emerge off the Texas coast
by Mon night. This system may bring higher winds and seas to
portions of the Gulf into the middle of next week as it crosses
the basin, with winds reaching near-gale force over the north
central Gulf Mon night and Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
gale warning off the coast of Colombia.

Outside of the Colombian Basin, a recent scatterometer satellite
pass revealed moderate to fresh easterly trade winds throughout
the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean with 5-7 ft
seas reported by buoys. Conditions are more favorable in the NW
Caribbean with a gentle breeze, slight seas and isolated weak
convection.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between high
pressure in the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will
support strong to gale conditions offshore Colombia through
tonight, with fresh to strong winds elsewhere in the south-central
Caribbean into early next week. Generally moderate to fresh
trades will prevail elsewhere. A weak cold front will enter the
far NW Caribbean tonight, reaching from Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras Sun, then dissipate by Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the western subtropical Atlantic from
31N74W to the coast of Florida near West Palm Beach. Behind the
front, buoys are reporting strong northerly winds with 7-10 ft
seas. Ahead of the front, generally moderate to fresh winds
prevail with seas of 4-6 ft. A line of thunderstorms is observed
roughly 90nm ahead of the front along a pre-frontal trough.

In the central Atlantic, a large area of moderate N swell is
abating. A pair of surface troughs are causing scattered moderate
convection from 15N to 25N between 39W and 45W. In the eastern
Atlantic, winds are gentle to moderate with moderate seas.

For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front will move slowly SE
through early next week, reaching from east of Bermuda through the
Turks and Caicos Islands by Mon night. Behind the front, strong N
winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft can be expected through tonight,
before the front weakens and conditions improve. The next cold
front is forecast to move offshore the SE U.S. coast late Tue.

$$
FLYNN
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