[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jan 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

The surface pressure gradient, between W Atlantic Ocean high
pressure and lower pressure in Colombia and in Panama, will
continue to support pulsing winds to minimal gale force within
about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia tonight and Fri night. Sea
heights will build to a range from 8-12 ft. As the ridge shifts
eastward over the weekend, the pressure gradient will weaken, thus
leading to fresh to strong winds winds in the south-central basin
through the middle of next week.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

Strong high pressure is rapidly building behind a cold front that
extends from the Florida Big Bend SW to Veracruz, Mexico offshore
waters. This is supporting ongoing gale-force northerly winds over
the Tampico offshore waters with seas of 8 to 10 ft. Near gale
force winds will continue along the eastern Mexico offshore waters
through late Fri with gale conditions shifting to the Veracruz
region tonight. The front will extend from Sarasota, Florida to
the central Bay of Campeche Fri evening when winds and seas will
diminish below gale-force. However, fresh to strong N to NE winds
will gradually diminish through Sun.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 04N24W
to 05N41W. Scattered moderate convection extends from 03N to 15N
between 19W and 36W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a
gale warning for the Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend SW to Veracruz,
Mexico offshore waters this evening. Near gale to gale force N to
NE winds are behind the front with the strongest winds being off
the east-central Mexico coast or the Tampico offshore waters. Gale
force winds will extend to the region of Vercruz tonight.

Weak low pressure is forecast to develop along the frontal
boundary over the central Gulf on Fri, and quickly move
northeastward across Florida into the western Atlantic Sat evening
pushing the cold front across the southeastern Gulf into Sun
morning. Winds behind the front will diminish below gale force
early Fri evening. High pressure will build across the area in
the wake of the front then shift eastward through Mon, at which
time fresh to strong southerly flow develops over the NW Gulf in
advance of the next cold front. This front will move off the Texas
coast Mon, will quickly reach the eastern Gulf Tue and Tue night.
Mainly moderate to fresh northerly winds will follow behind this
front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a
gale warning for the Caribbean Sea.

Patches of shallow moisture are supporting isolated showers in the
Mona Passage as well the Gulf of Honduras. Farther west, the tail
of a pre-frontal trough support a line of showers in the Yucatan
Channel. Dry air subsidence from aloft support fair weather
elsewhere. Strong high pressure over the SW N Atlantic waters is
supporting fresh trade winds in the eastern Caribbean and fresh to
strong winds in the south-central region where seas are in the 7
to 9 ft range. Sea heights are 5 to 6 ft elsewhere, except the NW
Caribbean where seas are up to 4 ft.

The pressure gradient between high pressure across the western
Atlantic and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing
winds to minimal gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of
Colombia tonight and Fri night. Seas will build with these winds.
The coverage area of the fresh to strong trade winds has increased
and will cover mainly the waters between 68W and 80W through Fri.
Generally moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. A
weakening cold front is forecast to enter the far NW Caribbean
Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Strong high pressure ridging dominates the western and central
Atlantic waters. A cold front extends from 31N35W SW to 25N52W
where it transitions to a stationary front that continues to just
east of the central Bahamas. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE
winds dominate this region with seas in the 3 to 7 ft range.

High pressure located northeast of Bermuda will shift
northeastward allowing for the next cold front to move offshore
northern Florida on Fri, accompanied by fresh to strong winds. Low
pressure forecast to develop along the frontal boundary over the
Gulf of Mexico will move into the western Atlantic Sat evening,
then move across the northern forecast waters on Sun. High
pressure in its wake will shift eastward through Tue as another
cold front move across the waters NE of northern Florida through
Tue night. Fresh southerly winds will precede this front.

$$
Ramos
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