[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181748
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Jan 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and the Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning...

The 18/1200 UTC forecast consists of: gale-force winds forecast
to be within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia, starting from the
late night hours of Tuesday night until around sunrise on
Wednesday morning. The sea heights will range from 8 feet to 10
feet. The wind speeds will become slower, and less than
gale-force, from Wednesday morning until Wednesday night. The
gale-force winds will return on Wednesday night, from 11N to 12N
between 74W and 76W. The sea heights will range from 9 feet to
11 feet.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details
about the warning situation.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 05N,
to 05N04W. The ITCZ continues from 05N04W to 05N13W, 03N18W
04N24W, 02N37W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 10N southward from 53W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A
surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center that
is in SW Georgia, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

Moderate to fresh winds cover the area. The sea heights range
from 2 feet to 4 feet.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through Wed. Fresh
southerly return flow will set up across the western Gulf today,
ahead of the next cold front forecast to emerge from the coast
of Texas late Wed night. The front will reach from near
Vermilion Bay, Louisiana to Brownsville, Texas on Thu morning,
and from Panama City, Florida to near Tuxpan, Mexico by Thu
evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas are
expected in the wake of the front, with gale conditions possible
in the west central and SW Gulf Thu through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind warning for the Caribbean Sea, and the sea
heights.

A cold front passes through the Windward Passage. A shear line
continues from the Windward Passage, southwestward across
Jamaica, to the SE coast of Nicaragua. Precipitation:
rainshowers cover the area that extends northwestward from the
cold front/shear line. Strong northerly winds are within 100 nm
of the shear line on the northern/western side of the shear
line. Fresh to moderate winds are elsewhere to the north and
northwest of the shear line. Moderate to fresh winds cover the
rest of the Caribbean Sea.

A surface ridge passes through 21N58W in the Atlantic Ocean,
across the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea, to 15N73W.

Convergent trade winds are triggering isolated to widely
scattered rainshowers, throughout the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet between 70W and 80W.
The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere.

The pressure gradient, between high pressure building across the
W Atlantic and the Colombian low, will support pulsing winds to
minimal gale force across the south central Caribbean Sea,
particularly within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia at
night. Seas will build to 10-12 ft with these winds. These
marine conditions are expected tonight, Wed night, and possibly
Thu night. The area of fresh to strong winds in the central
Caribbean Sea will expand Wed and persist into Thu. Generally
moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N62W 22N70W, into the Windward
Passage. A surface trough is about 240 nm to the northwest of
the cold front. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 150 nm to the east of the cold front
at the southern end of the front, and within 380 nm to the east
of the cold front at the northern end of the front. The sea
heights range from 8 feet to 10 feet from 26N northward between
70W and 78W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1027 mb high pressure center that
is near 36N45W, to a 1021 mb high pressure center that is near
25N45W.

The 30N27W low pressure center of 24 hours ago has moved to the
north of the area. A surface trough passes through 31N22W to
30N21W 27N21W 20N26W. A dissipating cold front passes through
31N29W to 27N35W 27N43W. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 9
feet, from 18N northward between 20W and 40W, from 12N northward
between 40W and 49W, from 12N to 23N between 49W and 60W, and
from 29N northward between 54W and 60W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate covers the area from 20N northward from 43W eastward.

The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet, in the remainder of
the area.

A surface trough is in the coastal waters of Africa, from 12N
near Guinea-Bissau to 23N near the southern parts of the Western
Sahara. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 19N to 23N
from 21W eastward to Africa.

A cold front extends from 27N65W to the eastern tip of Cuba near
20N74W. Fresh to strong W to NW winds N of 29N and E of 72W will
persist through early this afternoon before diminishing.
Large seas will continue to affect the northern waters through
tonight and will subside gradually from W to E. The front will
move across the SE waters today, become stationary tonight, then
begin to move N Wed while dissipating. High pressure will build
into the western Atlantic along 31N tonight. The next cold front
is forecast to move offshore northern Florida on Fri.

$$
mt/ah
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