[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172133
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jan 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N69W to
eastern Cuba. SW gale- force winds, and seas to 16 ft, prevail
ahead of the front and north of 30N. The gale force winds are
forecast to continue through late tonight before diminishing.

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building in the wake of a
cold front over the SW N Atlantic waters will tighten the
pressure gradient across the Caribbean waters. Winds will pulse
to gale- force off the coast of Colombia Tue night and Wed night,
and then are possible Thu night.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N10W, to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to
06N23W, 03N30W, 01N35W, and to the Equator along 44W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 08N southward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure is building across the Gulf waters. Moderate to
fresh winds, locally strong over the NE Gulf, prevail over the
eastern Gulf with light to gentle winds over the western Gulf.
Seas are in the 8-10 ft range over the SE Gulf, 5-8 ft over the
NE Gulf, 3-6 ft over the SW Gulf, and 1-3 ft over the NW Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds will continue over
the NE Gulf into this evening before diminishing. Seas will
gradually subside over the eastern Gulf through tonight. Fresh
southerly return flow will set up across the western Gulf on Tue
ahead of the next cold front forecast to emerge from the coast of
Texas late Wed night and extend from Apalachicola, Florida to
Tampico, Mexico Thu evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds and
building seas will follow the front, with near-gale winds
possible off the coast of eastern Mexico, between the Rio Grand
River and Veracruz.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to Nicaragua.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail west of the front, reaching
locally strong speeds over the waters off NE Honduras. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range
west of the front, 4-6 ft over the south central and eastern
Caribbean, and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate tonight,
with seas continuing to subside this evening. Mainly moderate to
fresh winds will prevail in the south-central Caribbean through
Tue. Then, fresh to strong winds are expected in the central
Caribbean beginning on Tue night as high pressure builds N of the
area. Near gale to gale force winds will pulse near the coast of
Colombia each night, Tue night through Thu night. Generally
moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning remains in effect for portions of the western
Atlantic. Please, see the Special Features section for more
information. Aside from the area of gale force winds ahead of
the cold front, strong to near-gale force winds prevail west of
the front and north of 24N as well as within 360 nm east of the
front and north of 24N. Seas over this area are in the 8-17 ft
range.

Farther east, a dissipating cold front extends from 31N36W to
20N60W. Gentle to moderate winds are on either side of the front.
Seas over this area are in the 8-11 ft range. Low pressure of
1009 mb is centered near 31N27W. Fresh to strong winds are within
90 nm SW semicircle of the low. Seas in the vicinity of the low
are in the 8-11 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of
5-8 ft prevail across the remainder of the discussion waters.

For the forecast west of 65W, strong W to NW winds will continue
west of the front, N of 27N through Tue morning. The front will
reach from 27N65W to eastern Cuba by Tue morning, move across the
SE waters on Tue, then begin to lift N on Wed night while
dissipating. Seas will gradually subside from W to E through mid-
week. High pressure will follow the front. The next cold front
is forecast to move offshore northern Florida by early Fri.

$$
AL
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