[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170425
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jan 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0425 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: The cold front has cleared the Gulf
of Mexico and now extends from offshore NE Florida to the NW
Caribbean Sea. Surface observations and a recent scatterometer
satellite pass show strong to near gale-force westerly winds
affecting the eastern Gulf waters, especially east of 90W. Seas in
the region are up to 18 ft, as confirmed by an altimeter pass in
the afternoon hours. Conditions will improve Mon as high pressure
builds into the area in the wake of the front.

Atlantic Gale Warning: The aforementioned cold front is producing
a large area of showers and thunderstorms, extending from the
central Bahamas to the Mid-Atlantic and New England and between
the cold front and 72W. Surface observations and satellite-
derived wind data indicate that strong to gale force S to SW winds
are occurring east of the cold front to around 70W, mainly north
of 23N. Strong to gale force W to SW winds are also found behind
the frontal boundary. Seas of 8 to 16 ft already ongoing in the
area of gale force winds will increase to 10 to 18 ft behind the
front. Conditions will gradually improve late Mon into Tue
morning.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
the three warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near
10N13W to near 07N20W. The ITCZ then continues from 07N20W to
03N30W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N
to 07N and between 25W and 42W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
a Gale Warning for the NE Gulf.

High pressure continues to build behind the cold front that
recently moved across the Gulf of Mexico. A dry and stable
airmass covers the region, only allowing stratocumulus clouds.
Surface observations and scatterometer data depict strong to near gale-
force westerly winds E of 90W, while fresh or weaker NW-N winds
are found W of 90W. Seas of 8-14 ft are occurring W of 90W and in
the Bay of Campeche, while seas less than 8 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, strong to gale force NW winds over the NE Gulf
will diminish to fresh to strong during the overnight hours. Seas
will gradually subside from W to E tonight and Mon, with seas
under 12 ft over the eastern Gulf by Mon morning. The next cold
front is forecast to emerge from the coast of Texas Wed night and
extend from the Florida Big Bend to Tampico, Mexico Thu night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from Cienfuegos, Cuba to northern Honduras.
A few showers are noted affecting central and eastern Cuba and
nearby waters, mainly north of 20N. The rest of the basin enjoys
fairly tranquil weather conditions. Fresh to locally strong NW-N
winds are found behind the frontal boundary in the NW Caribbean
Sea. Fresh to locally strong trades are also noted in the south-
central and eastern Caribbean Sea, with the strongest winds
occurring offshore NW Colombia. Moderate or weaker winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas of 6-11 ft are observed behind the cold front,
with the highest seas occurring in the Yucatan Channel. Seas of
3-6 ft are prevalent in the rest of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will reach from
eastern Cuba to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua by Mon
morning, then stall and begin to dissipate by Mon night. Fresh to
strong NW winds and building seas are behind the front. Fresh to
locally strong winds will pulse in the south-central Caribbean at
night along the coast of Colombia through Tue. Then, the area of
fresh to strong winds will expand over the central Caribbean Tue
night through Fri. Generally moderate to fresh trades will prevail
elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning for portions of the southwest Atlantic.

Outside of the special feature, a cold front extends from 31N45W
to 22N59W and a few showers are noted near the frontal boundary.
Seas of 8-12 ft are occurring north of 22N and between 43W and
66W. Farther east, a 1005 mb low pressure is located near 31N27W.
A cold front extends from the low pressure to 21N27W and
scattered moderate convection is observed from 24N and 29W and
between the cold front and 20W. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass show fresh to strong S winds north of 23N and east of 25W,
affecting the Canary Islands. Fresh to strong N-NW winds are also
noted north of 22N and between 25W and 38W. Seas of 8-15 ft are
found north of 20N and between 17W and 37W. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and seas of 4-8 ft prevail.

For the forecast W of 65W, a cold front extends from 31N76W to
the NW Bahamas into central Cuba. Gale force winds will continue
on either side of the front as it moves eastward through Mon
afternoon, when the front is forecast to extend from 31N68W to the
SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba. Strong winds will then continue to
affect the northern waters through Tue morning. High pressure will
bring gentle winds Tue night through Wed. The next cold front is
forecast to enter the NW offshore waters Thu night.

$$
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
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