[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162007
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jan 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front that stretches from
South Florida to western Cuba will move SE of the area by this
evening. Strong winds follow this front, with gale force W to NW
winds occurring over the NE Gulf. Seas behind the front in the
area of highest winds range from 12 to 17 ft. Conditions will
improve Mon as high pressure builds into the area in the wake of
the front.

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front has moved off the NE coast of
Florida. Gale force S to SW winds are observed east of the cold
front. Gale force W to NW winds will develop behind the front, N
of 27N, through Mon. Seas of 10 to 14 ft already ongoing in the
area of gale force winds will increase to 12 to 18 ft behind the
front. Conditions will gradually improve late Mon into Tue
morning.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
the three warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near
06N10W to near 03N17W. The ITCZ then continues from 03N17W to
00N40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 05N
between 32W and 38W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
a Gale Warning for the NE Gulf.

A cold front extends from south Florida to western Cuba. Ahead
of the front, a squall line of thunderstorms stretches across the
Florida Straits. The cold front and associated squall line will
exit the basin by this evening. High pressure centered is
building in the wake of the cold front, bringing strong to near
gale W to NW winds to much of the area. Seas are generally 8 to
15 ft, except for the NW Gulf where seas of 3-6 ft are noted.

For the forecast, in the wake of the cold front gale force winds
will continue over the NE Gulf into this evening. Trailing fresh
to strong winds and rough seas in the eastern Gulf will gradually
diminish on Mon. Conditions are forecast to improve on Mon as high
pressure builds over the region. A new cold front is forecast to
emerge from the coast of Texas Wed night and extend from the
Florida Big Bend to Tampico, Mexico Thu night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from western Cuba to western Honduras, with
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection within 90 nm
ahead of it. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 3-6 ft, are noted
west of the front. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the
central and eastern Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the south central
Caribbean, 3-4 ft over the north central and eastern Caribbean,
and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern
and central Caribbean will continue through Thu night. Otherwise,
a cold front extending from Tampa Bay to Cancun is forecast to
enter the NW Caribbean later this morning, followed by fresh to
strong NW winds and building seas. The front will extend from
central Cuba to NE Honduras by Mon morning where it will start to
weaken before dissipating Mon night. Seas in the Yucatan Channel
are forecast to peak tonight near 13 ft.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning for portions of the southwest Atlantic.

A cold front has moved off the coast of NE Florida. A squall line
is out ahead of the front and east of Florida and the NW Bahamas.
Gale- force SW winds are ahead of the cold front, with seas of 10
to 14 ft. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 6-8 ft are noted
west of the front. Farther east, another cold front enters the
discussion waters from 31N44W to 24N54W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 60 nm east of the front. Gentle to
moderate winds and seas of 8-12 ft are noted north of the front.
Low pressure is centered near 31N26W, with associated cold front
extending to near 27N25W to 21N28W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted within 330 nm south
semicircle of the low. Strong to near- gale force winds are
within 300 nm NW of the low, with fresh to strong winds within
300 nm SW quadrant and east semicircle. Seas of 10-15 ft are
within 210 nm west semicirlce of the low, with seas of 8-10 ft
elsewhere within 450 nm west and 270 nm east semicircle of the
low. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-7 ft are noted
elsewhere over the Atlantic discussion waters.

For the forecast W of 65W, expect gale force winds to continue on
both sides of a cold front as it moves eastward through Mon
afternoon, when the front is forecast to extend from 31N67W to the
SE Bahamas. Strong to near gale force winds will then continue to
affect the northern waters through Tue morning. The next cold
front is forecast to enter the NW offshore waters Thu night.

$$
AL
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