[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141045
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL 1205 UTC Fri Jan 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A broad area of low pressure located to
the NE of the Bahamas will combine with low pressure moving off
the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight. Explosive cyclogenesis is then
expected through today as the system moves northeast toward the
Canadian Maritimes. A cold front extending from the low pressure
center will cross the subtropical waters of the SW N Atlantic
today. Near gale-force westerly winds and rough seas will build
today covering the area north of 27N between 58W and the coast
of Florida, with areas of sustained gale force winds expected
near and ahead of the frontal boundary. Winds will quickly
decrease Sat while seas gradually abate through the weekend. A
second strong cold front is forecast to emerge off the coast of
Florida on Sun. Strong to gale-force winds are expected on
either side of the front on Sun and Sun night north of 27N.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front associated with
a very potent area of low pressure is forecast to move across the
far NW Gulf Sat morning, then across the rest of the basin through
Sun afternoon. A Gale Warning is now in effect for most of the
western and northern Gulf waters for Sat and Sat night. Gale
conditions are possible over some areas of the north-central and
NE Gulf late Sat night into early Sun. Strong to near gale force
winds will follow this front with gale force winds developing
along the E Mexico offshore waters Sat and Sat night. Please read
the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Gale Warning E of 35W: A low pressure of 1009 mb is centered near
29N26W with an occlusion wrapping around to the east. An earlier
scatterometer pass revealed an area of gale force winds behind the
occlusion near 28N24W. This low has been cut off from the jet
stream and is expected to remain in the east Atlantic for several
days with strong winds possible throughout the weekend. Refer to
the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/frandlarge
/metarea2 for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea to 04N21W
where the ITCZ continues through 04N33W to 02N42W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 105 nm either side of the
monsoon trough/ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please
see the Special Features section above for details.

High pressure dominates the western half of the Gulf with light
to gentle variable winds. The pressure gradient tightens in the
eastern basin with winds increasing to moderate northerly in the
central Gulf and fresh northwesterly in the eastern Gulf. Seas are
mainly slight, building to moderate in the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds over the eastern
half of the Gulf will continue through this morning. Southerly
moderate to fresh winds are forecast to begin tonight across the
western half of the basin ahead of a strong cold front forecast to
enter the Gulf region by Sat morning. Strong to near gale force
northerly winds will follow the front, increasing to gale-force
along the eastern Mexico offshore waters Sat and Sat night. Gale
force winds are briefly forecast for the NW and north-central Gulf
Sat night. The front will move E of the area early Sun afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A low pressure and associated cold front extending to the southern
Bahamas is supporting NW moderate winds in the NW Caribbean with
3-5 ft seas. Due to the weaker pressure gradient, trade winds are
gentle to locally moderate elsewhere with seas in the 1-3 ft
range.

For the forecast, moderate NW winds in the NW Caribbean will
diminish this evening. Gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere
will increase to moderate to fresh Sat night and prevail through
Tue night. Fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean will
increase to locally strong at night along Colombia and in the Gulf
of Venezuela through Mon. Otherwise, a cold front is forecast to
enter the NW Caribbean on Sun morning followed by NW fresh to
strong winds and building seas. The front will extend from central
Cuba to NE Honduras by Mon morning where it will start to weaken
before dissipating Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Atlantic waters north of
27N between 58W-65W. Please see the Special Features section
above for details.

A cold front extends from a 1000 mb low located near 29N67W SW to
the southern Bahamas. Gale force winds are ongoing east of the
low and over the north-central offshore waters associated with a
reinforcing cold front entering the region.

For the forecast west of 65W, near gale to gale force winds and
building seas across the waters N of 27N will continue today and
diminish tonight. Marine conditions will briefly improve on Sat
ahead of a cold front forecast to emerge off the coast of Florida
on Sun. Strong winds will start affecting the NW offshore waters
Sat night, rapidly increasing to gale force winds Sun morning.
Near gale to gale force winds will affect the waters N of 27N
through Mon morning.

In the central Atlantic, a stationary boundary extends from
31N40W to 27N54W. North of this feature, fresh to strong easterly
winds and seas of 9-12 ft persist. In the eastern Atlantic, a low
pressure system near 29N26W is causing gale force winds. Refer to
the Gale Warning East of 35W in the special features section
above for details. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate with
moderate seas.

$$
Ramos
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