[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141035
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jan 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A broad area of low pressure located to
the NE of the Bahamas will combine with low pressure moving off
the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight. Explosive cyclogenesis is then
expected through today as the system moves northeast toward the
Canadian Maritimes. A cold front extending from the low pressure
center will cross the subtropical waters of the SW N Atlantic
today. Near gale-force westerly winds and rough seas will build
today covering the area north of 27N between 58W and the coast of
Florida, with areas of sustained gale force winds expected near
and ahead of the frontal boundary. Winds will quickly decrease Sat
while seas gradually abate through the weekend. A second strong
cold front is forecast to emerge off the coast of Florida on Sun.
Strong to gale-force winds are expected on either side of the
front on Sun and Sun night north of 27N. Please read the latest
NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front associated with
a very potent area of low pressure is forecast to move across the
far NW Gulf Sat morning, then across the rest of the basin through
Sun afternoon. A Gale Warning is now in effect for most of the
western and northern Gulf waters for Sat and Sat night. Gale
conditions are possible over some areas of the north-central and
NE Gulf late Sat night into early Sun. Strong to near gale force
winds will follow this front with gale force winds developing
along the E Mexico offshore waters Sat and Sat night. Please read
the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Gale Warning E of 35W: A low pressure of 1009 mb is centered near
29N26W with an occlusion wrapping around to the east. An earlier
scatterometer pass revealed an area of gale force winds behind the
occlusion near 28N24W. This low has been cut off from the jet
stream and is expected to remain in the east Atlantic for several
days with strong winds possible throughout the weekend. Refer to
the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/frandlarge
/metarea2 for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea to 04N21W
where the ITCZ continues through 04N33W to 02N42W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 105 nm either side of the
monsoon trough/ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please
see the Special Features section above for details.

High pressure dominates the western half of the Gulf with light
to gentle variable winds. The pressure gradient tightens in the
eastern basin with winds increasing to moderate northerly in the
central Gulf and fresh northwesterly in the eastern Gulf. Seas are
mainly slight, building to moderate in the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds over the eastern
half of the Gulf will continue through this morning. Southerly
moderate to fresh winds are forecast to begin tonight across the
western half of the basin ahead of a strong cold front forecast to
enter the Gulf region by Sat morning. Strong to near gale force
northerly winds will follow the front, increasing to gale-force
along the eastern Mexico offshore waters Sat and Sat night. Gale
force winds are briefly forecast for the NW and north-central Gulf
Sat night. The front will move E of the area early Sun afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Low pressure in the western subtropical Atlantic has disrupted
the climatological pressure gradient causing winds to decrease
below average. Latest scatterometer and buoy data reveal mainly
gentle to moderate trades in the central and eastern Caribbean
with 2-4 ft seas. NW winds are moderate in the NW Caribbean with
3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail over
the south-central Caribbean through the upcoming weekend. Gentle
to moderate winds are expected elsewhere across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Atlantic waters north of
27N between 58W-65W. Please see the Special Features section
above for details.

Low pressure of 1006 mb in the western Atlantic near 27N70W is
extending a trough into the Windward Passage. West of this trough
winds are fresh to strong from the northwest with 4-6 ft seas.
East of the trough, scatterometer data revealed near gale to gale
force southerly winds with 5-7 ft seas reported by buoys.
Satellite data also reveals scattered moderate convection with
embedded thunderstorm east of the trough.

For the forecast west of 65W, a large area of low pressure is NE
of the Bahamas with gale force winds currently affecting the NE
offshore waters. This system will continue to bring gale force
winds and building seas across the waters N of 27N tonight and
Fri. A surface through associated with it will move across the SW
N Atlantic waters through Fri. Marine conditions will briefly
improve on Sat ahead of a cold front forecast to emerge off the
coast of Florida on Sun. Strong to gale force winds are expected
on either side of the front on Sun and Sun night.

In the central Atlantic, a stationary boundary extends from
31N40W to 28N56W. North of this feature, a scatterometer
pass found a fresh to strong easterly breeze with altimeter data
reporting rough seas of 9-12 ft. In the eastern Atlantic, a low
pressure system near 29N28W is causing gale force winds. Refer to
the Gale Warning East of 35W in the special features section above
for details. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate with
moderate seas.

$$
Ramos
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