[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131021
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jan 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A broad area of low pressure
extending from the northern Caribbean to western Atlantic
is moving northeast and will combine with low pressure
moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast late Thu. Explosive
cyclogenesis is then expected through Fri as the system
continues northeast toward the Canadian Maritimes. A cold front
extending from the low pressure center will cross the
subtropical waters of the western Atlantic late Thu into Fri.
Near gale force westerly winds and rough seas will build Fri to
dominate the area north of 27N between 60W and the coast of
Florida with areas of sustained gale force winds expected near the
frontal boundary. Winds will quickly decrease and seas gradually
abate through the day Sat.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 09N13W
to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to the coast of Brazil
near 02S40W. Scattered showers are noted within 30 nm of the ITCZ
between 27W and 31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends across the western Gulf while a 1025 mb
high pressure centered over Houston, Texas is gradually drifting
east across the NW Gulf. The fresh to locally strong NW to N
winds have diminished in the SW Gulf with recent observations
indicating seas ranging between 4 to 5 ft. Gentle to moderate
winds and 2 to 5 ft seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the ridge will gradually shift east and
dominate the Gulf waters through Fri. Southerly return flow will
set up over the western Gulf by late Fri ahead of the next cold
front forecast to enter the Gulf region on Sat. Fresh to strong
winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front.
Gale conditions are possible off of Tampico, Mexico, by Sat
evening, and near the Veracruz area by Sat night into Sun.
Conditions will improve into next week as light and gentle winds
return across the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad low pressure trough extending across Cuba has disrupted
the pressure gradient causing the winds to decrease below average
for January. Recent scatterometer, altimeter and buoy data reveal
mainly gentle to moderate winds and 3-5 ft seas across the
majority of the Caribbean. A fresh NE breeze remains off the
coast of Colombia with 4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, no significant changes expected. There are no
Areas with significant convection across the basin. The fresh to
strong trade winds near the coast of Colombia have diminished
tonight. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail through the end
of the week and into the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds are
expected elsewhere across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 30N44W to 24N67W where a stationary
Front extends to 25N65W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
along the stationary front from 25N to 33N between 54W to 66W.
North of the boundaries, fresh NE winds extend 120 nm, decreasing
to moderate farther north with 7-10 ft seas throughout the area.
South of the boundaries, winds are gentle with 5-6 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 65W, the area of convection along the
stationary front will continue today. Meanwhile, a large area
of low pressure is expected to develop late today W of the
stationary front. The associated cold front will move across
the SW N Atlantic late Thu through Fri. Gale conditions are
expected over the waters N of 27N ahead of the front late
tonight into Fri. The next cold front will emerge off the coast
of Florida Sun night. Strong to near gale force southerly winds
are expected ahead of the front on Sun.

Farther east, low pressure of 1007 mb is centered near 28N30W. An
occluded front wraps around the low-pressure center. Scatterometer
data has revealed fresh to strong winds within 180 nm of the low.
Seas in this area are in the 10 to 12 ft range. Seas greater than
8 ft are observed within 450 nm of the low. Gentle to moderate
winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere.

$$
Torres
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