[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122337
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jan 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 10N14W
to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to the coast of Brazil
near 03S38W. Scattered showers are noted within 30 nm of the
ITCZ between 17W and 23W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends across the western Gulf. High pressure
prevails elsewhere. Fresh to strong NW-N winds prevail over the
SW Gulf of Mexico, where seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range. Gentle
to moderate winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NW to N winds will continue
over the SW Gulf through this evening while diminishing. A ridge
will dominate the Gulf waters through Fri. Southerly return flow
will set up over the western Gulf by late Fri ahead of the next
cold front forecast to enter the Gulf region on Sat. Fresh to
strong winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the
front. Gale conditions are possible off of Tampico, Mexico, by
Sat evening, and near the Veracruz area by Sat night into Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient persists between high pressure north of the area and
climatological low pressure over Colombia. Fresh to locally
strong NE winds, and seas of 6-8 ft are noted within 90 nm of
the coast of northern Colombia. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
trades, and seas of 2-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds near the coast of
Colombia will diminish by this afternoon, then mainly moderate
to fresh winds will prevail. Gentle to moderate winds are
expected elsewhere across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 30N47W to near 27N56W, then becomes a
shearline to the central Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds are
noted within 90 nm north of the front and shearline. Gentle to
moderate winds are elsewhere north of the front and shearline.
Seas are in the 8-10 ft range north of these features, and 5-7 ft
west of 75W. Farther east, low pressure of 1008 mb is centered
near 30N32W. an occluded front extends from the low to near 27N26W,
then a cold front to 22N30W. Fresh to strong winds are noted
within 90 nm SW semicircle and 60 nm north of the low. Seas in
this area are in the 10 to 12 ft range. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are
elswhere within 450 nm of the low. Gentle to moderate winds and
seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 65W, the shear line along 23N/24N will
dissipate tonight as strong winds diminish over the Bahamas. A
large area of low pressure is expected to form late Thu N of
area. The associated cold front will move across the SW N
Atlantic late Thu through Fri. Gale conditions are expected over
the waters N of 27N ahead of the front through Fri. The next cold
front will emerge off the coast of Florida Sun night. Strong to
near gale force southerly winds are expected ahead of the front
on Sun.

$$
AL
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