[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121733
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jan 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Guinea near
09N14W to near 04N19W. The ITCZ continues SW from this position,
crossing the equator near 30W and continues to the coast of
Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered showers are noted within 30 nm of
the ITCZ between 18W and 23W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong NW-N winds continue over the SW Gulf of Mexico
west of a surface trough extending along 94/96W. Seas are 5 to 7
ft in the SW Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. The remainder
of the Gulf is dominated by moderate to fresh NE-E winds and 3
to 5 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NW to N winds will continue
over the SW Gulf through this evening while diminishing. A ridge
will dominate the Gulf waters through Fri. Southerly return flow
will set up over the western Gulf by late Fri ahead of the next
cold front forecast to enter the Gulf region on Sat. Fresh to
strong winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the
front. Winds could reach gale force by Sat evening off Tampico,
Mexico, and near the Veracruz area by Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient persists between high pressure north of the area and
semi-permanent low pressure over Colombia. A scatterometer
satellite pass reveals this pattern is maintaining fresh NE
winds within 90 nm of the coast of northern Colombia, as well as
within the Yucatan Channel and Gulf of Honduras north of 18N.
Elsewhere, scatterometer data found gentle to moderate trades.
Seas are 2 to 4 ft across the basin, except NE of Colombia seas
are 6 to 8 ft and in the NW Caribbean seas are 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, fresh trade winds near the coast of Colombia
will diminish by this afternoon, then mainly moderate to fresh
winds will prevail. Gentle to moderate winds are expected
elsewhere across the basin through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 30N51W to near 24N66W, then
transitions to a stationary front and extends westward 81W
within the Florida Straits. A recent satellite scatterometer
pass reveals fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front
with rough seas found in buoy observations. West of 70W,
scatterometer depicts strong to near gale force NE winds behind
the front. Scattered moderate convection remains within 120 nm
south of the stationary front. Ahead of the front, the western
Atlantic is dominated by gentle to moderate winds and moderate
seas.

For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front along 23N/24N
will dissipate tonight. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 8-10
ft in the wake of the front across the waters S of 27N will
gradually diminish by tonight. A large area of low pressure is
expected to form late Thu N of area. The associated cold front
will move across the SW N Atlantic on Thu. As this system moves
northeastward and strengthens, strong to near gale force winds
are forecast to spread over a large area north of 24N W of 60W
on Fri. The next cold front will emerge off the coast of Florida
Sun night. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected ahead of
the front on Sun.

In the eastern subtropical Atlantic, an occluded front is
wrapping around a 1009 mb low pressure center located near
30N33W. This occluded front enters the discussion area near
31N25W and extends a cold front to 21N38W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted ahead of the occlusion. A scatterometer pass
found strong northwesterly winds on the western periphery of the
low pressure center where seas are likely 10 to 13 ft. 8 ft
swell associated with this system extends as far south as 20N in
the central Atlantic. Gentle to moderate NE-E winds dominate the
remainder of the central and eastern tropical Atlantic with
moderate sea heights.

$$
Mora
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