[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120400
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jan 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to the central Atlantic near 03N20W. The ITCZ continues SW
from this position, crossing the equator near 27W and continues
to the coast of Brazil near 05S37W. Scattered showers are noted in
the vicinity of the boundary east of 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The frontal boundary over the basin has dissipated, leaving
behind a surface trough in the SW Gulf approximately 90 nm from
the Mexican coast. Strong winds and rough seas are noted south of
21N between the trough and the coast of Mexico, including the
unprotected waters outside of Veracruz. The remainder of the Gulf
is dominated by moderate to fresh NE winds and 6-8 ft seas.

For the forecast, conditions will improve across the Gulf of
Mexico by Wed morning. High pressure will build late this week,
leading to gentle winds west of 90W. Fresh NW winds are expected
in the eastern Gulf late Thu into early Fri as low pressure forms
east of Florida. The next cold front is expected to emerge off the
Texas coast by Sat. Strong winds are expected behind this front,
with gale force winds possible offshore Mexico from Tampico to
Veracruz.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient persists between high pressure north of the area and
semi-permanent low pressure over Colombia. This pattern is
maintaining moderate easterly flow over the majority of the
Caribbean with 4-6 ft seas. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected
near the coast of Colombia with 5-7 ft seas propagating throughout
the Colombian basin. A surface trough is analyzed along the
southern coast of Cuba with associated thunderstorms noted south
of the Guanahacabibes Peninsula in western Cuba and near Santiago
de Cuba in southeastern Cuba.

For the forecast, fresh to strong east to northeast winds will
pulse in the south-central Caribbean through tonight, with fresh
winds in the passages. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will
prevail across most of the basin Wed through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N57W to the central Bahamas where it
has lost forward progress and extends a stationary boundary to
Havana, Cuba. A recent scatterometer pass has revealed fresh to
strong northerly winds behind the front with rough seas found in
buoy observations. Ahead of the front, the western Atlantic is
dominated by gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 65W, The cold front will gradually move
southeast before becoming stationary Wednesday. Strong N to NE
winds and building seas will follow the front through Wed,
affecting the NW Bahamas. Winds will diminish Wed night as the
front weakens. A large area of low pressure is expected to form
late Thu to the east of Florida. As this system moves
northeastward and strengthens, expect strong to near gale force
winds to spread over a large area north of 24N Thu night through
Fri night, with gale-force winds possible north of 28N. The next
cold front will emerge off the coast of Florida late this weekend.

In the eastern subtropical Atlantic, an occluded front is wrapping
around a 1010 mb low pressure center located near 31N32W. This
front enters the discussion area near 31N28W and extends a cold
front to 22N40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the
occlusion with scattered weak convection along the cold front. A
scatterometer pass found strong northerly winds on the western
periphery of the low pressure center where seas are likely 12-14
ft. 8 ft swell associated with this system extends as far south as
20N in the central Atlantic. Gentle to moderate NE-E winds
dominate the remainder of the central and eastern tropical
Atlantic with moderate sea heights.

$$
FLYNN
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