[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111705
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Jan 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends across the
Florida Straits and transitions to a stationary front near
23N85W to the Bay of Campeche. Gale-force winds prevail between
the front and the coast of Mexico. Very rough seas in the area
are approaching 15 to 18 ft. Conditions will improve across the
Gulf waters by mid-week as the front pushes well southeast of
the area. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
To 01N16W. The ITCZ continues from 01N16W to 04N37W near the
coast of Brazil. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of
the boundary, mainly west of 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the special features section above for more on the
gale warning over the western Gulf.

A cold front extends across the Florida Straits to 23N85W where
it transitions to a stationary front to 18N93W. The gale warning
is in effect between the front and the Mexican coast and
continues through this afternoon. Strong northeasterlies prevail
between the front and the US Gulf coast, with moderate to rough
seas up to 15 ft. Cloudiness with scattered showers are observed
along the frontal boundary. Conditions are currently more
favorable in the Southeastern Gulf with moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas, though these will build as the front
approaches.

For the forecast, strong winds behind the front, with gale force
N winds occurring offshore of Veracruz early today, before
diminishing this afternoon. Conditions will improve across the
Gulf of Mexico by Wed as the front pushes well southeast of the
area. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build over
Gulf late this week, leading to gentle winds. The next cold
front is likely to emerge off the Texas coast over the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the area continues to maintain a moderate
gradient with low pressure over Colombia. Fresh to strong NE
winds are noted in the south central Caribbean, which are
generating moderate to rough seas throughout the Colombian
basin. Moderate easterly winds are noted in satellite derived
winds elsewhere with a gentle breeze in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the combination of a high pressure to the
north and a low pressure over Colombia continues to provide a
tighter gradient across the basin. This will support pulses of
fresh to strong east to northeast winds across the central
Caribbean through this evening, with fresh winds in the
passages. Mainly moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. A cold
front will approach the Yucatan Channel tonight, then likely
push into the northwest Caribbean into mid week, while
dissipating. Mainly gentle to moderate winds should then
continue across most of the basin late this week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N63W to the central Bahamas and
continues across the Florida Straits. A recent scatterometer
pass found fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front.
Elsewhere west of 65W, gentle to moderate winds are observed.
Seas of 5 to 8 feet are noted in altimeter data throughout the
western subtropical Atlantic ahead of the front, with 8 to 12 ft
seas noted behind the front.

Farther east, a cold front extends from a 1011 mb low near
31N29W to 25N47W where a stationary boundary continues to
26N50W, then transitions to a warm front to 30N55W.
Scatterometer data reveals moderate to locally fresh
anticyclonic flow behind the front with rough seas between 8 to
15 ft from N of 24N to 31N. 8 ft swell from this system extend
as far south as 22N in the central Atlantic.
A gentle to moderate breeze and moderate sea heights are
observed elsewhere in the central and eastern
tropical/subtropical Atlantic, with the exception of locally
strong winds observed in satellite derived winds along a surface
trough analyzed from 11N30W to 07N33W.

For the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned front near
29N65W to the Straits of Florida will reach near 25N65W to the
central Bahamas to western Cuba early Wed. Strong N to NE winds
and building seas will follow the front through Wed, affecting
the NW Bahamas. Winds will diminish Wed night as the front
weakens.
Looking ahead, a trough of low pressure will form over Florida
and the Bahamas on Thu. A large area of low pressure is expected
to form by Thu night or early Fri as the system moves
northeastward.
This system is likely to cause strong to near gale force winds
late this week over a large area north of 24N, with gale-force
winds possible north of 29N.


$$
Nepaul
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net