[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110450
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Jan 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0440 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from Ft. Myers,
Florida to Veracruz, Mexico. Gale-force winds prevail between the
front and the coast of Mexico. Very rough seas in the area are
approaching 20 ft. These conditions are expected to propagate
southward into the bay of Campeche by Tue. Conditions will improve
across the Gulf waters by mid-week as the front pushes well
southeast of the area.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Liberia near 05N10W
to 01N19W. The ITCZ continues from 01N19W to 04N37W to 03N49W near
the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from the equator to 03N between 04W and 16W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the special features section above for more on the
gale warning over the western Gulf.

A cold front extends from Ft. Myers, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico.
The gale warning is in effect between the front and the Mexican
coast. Strong northeasterlies prevail between the front and the
US Gulf coast, with moderate to rough seas confirmed by buoy data
and a recent altimeter pass. Isolated thunderstorms are observed
along the frontal boundary. Conditions are currently more
favorable in the Southeastern Gulf with moderate winds and slight
to moderate seas, though these will build as the front approaches.

For the forecast, the gale force winds will continue offshore
Tampico through this evening and move south to off Veracruz
tonight through Tue morning, before diminishing Tue afternoon.
Conditions will improve across the Gulf of Mexico by Wed as the
front pushes well southeast of the area. In the wake of the front,
high pressure will build over the Gulf late this week, leading to
gentle winds. The next cold front is likely to emerge off the
Texas coast over the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the area continues to maintain a moderate
gradient with low pressure over Colombia. A recent scatterometer
pass revealed fresh to strong NE winds in the south central
Caribbean generating moderate to rough seas throughout the
Colombian basin. Moderate easterly winds are noted elsewhere with
a gentle breeze in the NW Caribbean outside of scattered
thunderstorms observed in the area.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support
pulses of fresh to strong east to northeast winds across the
central Caribbean through Tue night, with fresh winds in the
passages. Mainly moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. A cold
front will approach the Yucatan Channel Tue night, then likely
push into the NW Caribbean into mid week, while dissipating.
Mainly gentle to moderate winds should then continue across most
of the basin late this week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N71W to the south Florida coast near
27N. A recent scatterometer pass found fresh to strong northerly
winds behind the front with fresh westerly winds extending
approximately 180 nm ahead of the front. Elsewhere west of 65W,
gentle to moderate winds are observed. Altimeter data reveals
moderate seas throughout the western subtropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will reach from
30N65W to the Florida Keys early Tue, and from 25N65W to the
central Bahamas to western Cuba early Wed. Strong N to NE winds
and building seas will follow the front through Wed, affecting the
NW Bahamas. Winds will diminish Wed night as the front weakens.
Looking ahead, a trough of low pressure will form over Florida and
the Bahamas on Thu. A large area of low pressure is expected to
form by Thu night or early Fri as the system moves northeastward.
This system is likely to cause strong to near gale force winds
late this week over a large area north of 24N, with gale-force
winds possible north of 29N.

Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N29W to 25N46W where a
stationary boundary continues to 29N57W. Scatterometer data
depicts fresh anticyclonic flow behind the front with rough seas.
8 ft swell from this system extends as far south as 22N in the
central Atlantic. A gentle to moderate breeze and moderate sea
heights are observed elsewhere in the central and eastern
tropical/subtropical Atlantic.

$$
FLYNN
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