[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100447
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jan 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front has moved off the Texas
coast and into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico this evening.
Strong winds are expected behind the front through the early part
of the week, reaching gale force within 60 nm of Tamaulipas Mon,
then in the Veracruz area by Mon night. Conditions will improve
across the Gulf waters by mid-week as the front pushes well
southeast of the area. Seas of 12 to 14 ft will build within 120
nm of the Mexican coast behind the front, reaching 16 to 18 ft in
the SW Gulf Mon night into Tue. Please read the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from southern Liberia near 05N08W to
05N12W. The ITCZ then continues from 05N12W to 03N30W to 03N49W
near the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is
evident on satellite imagery from 05N to 08N between 13W and 31W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has entered the northwestern Gulf of Mexico bringing
strong winds into the basin. A Gale Warning is in effect in
association with this front. Please see the Special Features
section for details. As of 0230Z the front has passed a bouy 60
nm SSE of Corpus Christi reporting 27G35 kt northerly winds with
5 ft seas. A moderate NE breeze is noted in the southern Gulf near
the Yucatan Peninsula. The remainder of the basin is dominated by
light to gentle winds outside of thunderstorm activity and 2-4 ft
seas. Scattered moderate convection with embedded thunderstorms
is noted along and approximately 120 nm ahead of the cold front.
Scattered moderate convection is also observed in the Yucatan
Channel and along the northwest coast of Cuba.

For the forecast, strong winds will follow the front through the
early part of the week, reaching gale force within 60 nm of
Tamaulipas early Monday, then Veracruz Mon night. Conditions will
improve across the basin mid-week as the front pushes well
southeast of the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure in the western
Atlantic and the Colombian low continues to support fresh to
strong easterly winds across the majority of the central and
eastern Caribbean with 6-8 ft seas. Recent scatterometer data
revealed strong northeasterlies in the Windward Passage. The
strongest winds in the basin extend off the coast of Colombia
into the central Carribbean with near gale force winds and 7-10 ft
seas. Conditions are more favorable in the Northwestern Caribbean
where scatterometer data confirms a moderate easterly breeze with
3-5 ft seas likely. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
observed roughly 90 nm west of the Cayman Islands and in the
Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will continue to
support fresh to strong east to northeast winds across the
central Caribbean and the passages through Tue night. Mainly
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate NE-E swell will
impact the Tropical N Atlantic waters through Mon before decaying.
A cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel Tue, then likely
push into the NW Caribbean into late week, while dissipating.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N39W and extends
SW to near 24N61W where it begins to dissipate. Recent
scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong NE winds behind the
front with 8 to 12 ft seas based on a pair of altimeter passes and
buoy observations. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are observed
ahead of the front with 7-9 ft seas.

The eastern tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a 1029 mb
high pressure located a few degrees west of Portugal. A low
pressure trough roughly 300 nm west of the Canary Islands is
generating an area of isolated thunderstorms and fresh
southeasterly winds. The remainder of the eastern tropical
Atlantic is dominated by a moderate breeze and 7-9 ft seas.

For the forecast W of 65W, The cold front will dissipate while
moving east of the area into tonight. Fresh winds and higher seas
in the wake of the front will gradually diminish through tonight.
Another cold front will make its way across the Southeast Plains
and move offshore Florida Mon, then sink across the Bahamas and
Turks and Caicos through mid-week. Strong NE winds with building
seas will follow this front. Low pressure may form along this
front later in the week.

$$
FLYNN
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