[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jan 09 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning...

A cold front is forecast to move off the Texas coast tonight,
reaching the SW Gulf by Mon morning.
Gale-force winds following the front will reach within 60 nm of
Tamaulipas Mon, then within 60 nm of Veracruz Mon night into
early Tue. Conditions will improve across the basin mid-week, as the
front pushes well to the southeast of the area. The sea heights will
build to 6 to 9 feet behind the front, reaching 7 to 11 feet in the
west central Gulf, and 9 to 14 feet in the SW Gulf from Mon night
into Tue.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at
the website...https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for
more details about the warning situation.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through 04N/05N between the Prime
Meridian and 12W. The ITCZ continues from 05N12W, to 07N33W
04N39W 04N49W. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 120 nm
to the north of the ITCZ between 28W and 32W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm to the north of the
ITCZ between 25W and 48W, and within 120 nm to the south of the
ITCZ between 30W and 35W. Rainshowers are possible from the ITCZ
southward from 40W westward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind warning for the Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front currently is moving into the eastern sections of
Texas. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 92W eastward.

Moderate to fresh E-SE winds prevail across the basin. Seas are
3 to 5 ft in the SW Gulf,
and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere, except 5 to 7 ft in the NW and north
central Gulf where winds were fresh to strong earlier.

A surface ridge passes from central Georgia to the west central
Gulf of Mexico, along the coast of Mexico near 24N.

Fresh SE to S winds will prevail ahead of the next cold front,
that will move off the Texas coast this evening. Strong winds
will follow the front through the early part of the week,
reaching gale force within 60 nm of Tamaulipas Mon, then
Veracruz Mon night. Conditions will improve across the basin
mid-week as the front pushes well southeast of the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are triggering isolated to widely
scattered rainshowers, throughout the entire area.

Strong to near gale-force winds, and sea heights that range from
8 feet to 10 feet, are within 300 nm of the coast of Colombia.
Strong winds are from 14N to 19N between 63W and 70W. Fresh
winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are
elsewhere.

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of
the area and low pressure over Colombia will support pulses of
fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean and the
passages through the early part of the week. Mainly moderate
winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate NE-E swell will impact
the Tropical N Atlantic waters through Mon before decaying. A
cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel Tue night, and may
push a bit into the NW Caribbean into late week, while
dissipating.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N47W to 25N60W. The front is
dissipating cold from 25N60W to 24N70W.
Strong to near gale-force winds are from the cold front
northward between 46W and 54W. Strong winds are within 130 nm to
the north of the cold front between 60W and 70W. Fresh to strong
winds are from Cuba northward, from 70W westward. Precipitation:
isolated to widely scattered moderate rainshowers are within 180
nm on either side of the frontal boundary.

Fresh to strong winds are from the ITCZ to 14N between 24W and
34W, from the ITCZ to 18N between 34W and 44W, and from 22N
southward between 44W and 60W. The sea heights range from 8 feet
to 11 feet to the north of the line 31N20W 07N30W 05N40W 03N49W
21N50W 31N33W. The comparatively highest sea heights are from
20N to 26N between 20W and 26W.

A surface trough is near the Canary Islands, along 30N17W
24N20W. Fresh winds are within 420 nm of the trough on the NW
side from 26N northward. Strong winds are within 220 nm of the
surface trough on the SE side, close to the coast of Africa from
24N to 27N.

A cold front in SE parts of the basin will
dissipate while moving east of the area into tonight. Fresh to
strong winds and higher seas in the wake of the front will
diminish gradually through tonight. Another cold front will move
offshore Florida Mon, then sink across the Bahamas through mid-
week. Strong NE winds will likely follow this front. Low
pressure
may form along this front mid-week.

$$
mt/sk
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