[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082314
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jan 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra-Leone near
08N13W to 08N19W. The ITCZ then continues from 08N19W to 06N30W
to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered strong convection
is evident on satellite imagery just inland over NE Brazil near
the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front extends across the far north waters from 28N85W to
to near the Galveston Bay. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are along the frontal boundary, affecting mainly the north-
central Gulf. Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to locally
strong SE to S winds across the waters N of 24 and W of 90W,
with moderate to fresh E to SE winds elsewhere, except over the
SW Gulf where lighter winds are noted. Seas are 5-7 ft over the
NW Gulf and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the warm front will lift north of the area
while dissipating tonight. Fresh to locally strong SE to S return
flow will prevail across most of the Gulf this weekend ahead of
the next cold front forecast to move off the Texas coast Sun
night. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front through early
next week, likely reaching gale force within 60 nm of Veracruz
Mon night and Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the Azores high and the Colombian
low continues to support strong winds in the south-central
Caribbean near the coast of Colombia, accompanied by 8-10 ft
seas. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate to fresh trades and 4-6 ft
seas prevail. Scattered showers and storms are noted inland over
parts of the Yucatan Peninsula and N Belize.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support
pulses of fresh to strong trade winds across the central
Caribbean and the passages into early next week. Mainly moderate
winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate NE-E swell will impact the
Tropical N Atlantic waters into early next week before decaying.
A cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel Tue.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the area near 31N60W and extends SW to the
NW Bahamas. NW of the front, moderate to locally fresh N to NE
winds are noted per the scatterometer data. Seas are 6-8 ft N of
the front and east of 74W. West of 74W to the coast of Florida,
seas are 3-6 ft.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic Ocean is under the
influence of the Azores high. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds
prevail, with locally strong winds noted near the Canary Islands.
Isolated to scattered showers are occurring between the Cabo
Verde and Canary Islands in association with an upper level
trough. E of 50W, seas are 8-12 ft in long period N swell, with
the highest seas near the Canary Islands.

For the forecast W of 65W, the aforementioned cold front will
move SE across the basin through the weekend. Fresh to locally
strong NE winds are expected in the wake of the front as high
pressure builds toward the area. Seas will also build across the
Bahamas, the Straits of Florida, and Windward Passage. Another
cold front will move offshore Florida early Mon, then sink across
the Bahamas through Tue night. Strong NE winds will likely
follow this front. Low pressure may form along this front during
the middle of next week.

$$
GR/Mahoney
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