[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080925
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jan 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near the
border of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 08N19W. The
ITCZ extends from 08N19W to 06N35W and continues southwestward to
the mouth of the Amazon River in Brazil. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm north of the
ITCZ between 20W and 45W, and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ
between 33W and 49W. Similar convection is noted from the equator
to 02N between 47W and 51W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from near Fort Myers Florida to 27N90W
where it becomes a warm front to 1016 mb low pressure near
Brownsville Texas. Earlier scatterometer data showed fresh to
strong winds in the NW Gulf offshore of Texas where seas are 4 to
6 ft, locally 7 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted
near the front from 26N to 28N between 89W and 94W. Two surface
troughs are analyzed south of the front, one offshore of Mexico
from 24N97W to near Tampico, and another from 22N90W to the
eastern Bay of Campeche near 18N93W. Scattered showers are noted
in the vicinity of the eastern trough. Mainly moderate to locally
fresh return flow dominates the remainder of the basin. Seas are 3
to 5 ft elsewhere north of 25N, and 2 to 4 ft south of 25N, except
1 to 3 ft in the southeast Gulf.

For the forecast, the front will lift northward while weakening
today. Fresh to locally strong SE to S return flow will prevail
across most of the Gulf this weekend ahead of the next cold front
forecast to move off the Texas coast Sun night. Fresh to strong
winds will follow the front through early next week, possibly to
gale force within 60 nm of Veracruz Mon night and Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The basin is free of any significant surface features over the
waters, however the pressure gradient between low pressure over
northern Colombia and high pressure north of the basin supports
fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean, along with 7
to 9 ft seas. Fresh winds are noted across the approach to the
Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to locally
fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere in
the central and eastern Caribbean, and 3 to 5 ft in the western
Caribbean, except 1 to 3 ft in the lee of Cuba. Isolated to
scattered showers are noted across the basin with the trade wind
flow.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will continue to
support pulses of fresh to strong trade winds across the central
Caribbean and the passages into early next week. Mainly moderate
winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate NE-E swell will impact the
Tropical N Atlantic waters into early next week before decaying.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near Bermuda to across the northern
Bahamas where it becomes stationary to near Jupiter Florida.
Moderate to locally fresh winds are north of the front, as well
as north of 29N and east of the front to 62W. Seas are 5 to 8 ft
north of the front, except 7 to 9 ft seas are found north of 29N
between 62W and 75W. A surface trough is analyzed south of the
front from 25N65W to the eastern Dominican Republic near 19N69W.
Isolated showers are in the vicinity of the trough. A surface
trough is analyzed in the far eastern Atlantic from 24N27W to
15N30W with scattered convection nearby. The remainder of the
Atlantic remains under the influence of a 1036 mb Azores high.
The pressure gradient between this high and lower pressure over
western Africa supports strong NE winds from 26N to 31N between
14W and 28W and through the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, mainly
moderate to fresh trades prevail east of 50W, locally strong from
09N to 27N between 30W and 50W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere west
65W, and 6 to 9 ft west of 50W. East of 60W seas are mainly 8 to
13 ft in mixed northerly swell.

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will move southeast
across the basin through the weekend. Fresh to locally strong NE
winds are expected in the wake of the front as high pressure
builds toward the area. Seas will also build across the Bahamas,
Florida Straits, and Windward Passage. Another cold front will
move offshore Florida by early Mon, then sink across the Bahamas
through Tue night. Strong NE winds will likely follow this front.

$$
Lewitsky
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