[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051645
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jan 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1625 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: A weakening cold front is moving
across the waters offshore Morocco and strong to gale-force winds
are occurring behind the boundary as depicted in a recent
scatterometer satellite pass. This area corresponds to the Meteo-
France marine zone Agadir. Seas of 10 to 14 ft are expected in the
area. The gale warning is in effect until 06/12Z. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo- France at website
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African
continent, reaching the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Liberia near 06N10W and extending to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues
from 06N18W to 04N31W to the mouth of the Gurupi River in Brazil
near 01S46W. A surface trough extends from 07N44W to NE Brazil
near 01S50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
observed on satellite imagery within 90 nm of the ITCZ between
19W and 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure continues to dominate the Gulf of Mexico, promoting
fairly tranquil weather conditions. A surface trough is present
across the west coast of Florida, but the dry airmass in the Gulf
is suppressing the development of convection. Surface observations
and latest scatterometer satellite data show that gentle or
weaker anticyclonic winds prevail. Seas of 1-3 ft are prevalent.

For the forecast, high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico will support
light to gentle winds through Thu morning. A cold front is
forecast to move off the Texas coast by Thu afternoon, bringing
fresh to locally strong northerly winds across the northern Gulf
west of the front. The front will stall from near central Florida
to Tampico, Mexico by Fri morning and dissipate by this weekend.
Fresh southerly return flow will then prevail across most of the
Gulf on Sat ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off the
Texas coast late Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Latest scatterometer satellite data show strong to near gale-
force trades in the south-central Caribbean Sea, with the
strongest winds occurring offshore NW Colombia. Seas of 7-10 ft
are prevalent in the south-central Caribbean, with the highest
seas occurring offshore NW Colombia, as confirmed by a recent
altimeter satellite pass. Fresh trades and seas of 4-7 ft are
present in the SW, north-central and NE Caribbean. Moderate or
weaker trades and seas of 1-4 ft are found elsewhere in the basin.

A dry airmass prevails across the Caribbean Sea, greatly limiting
the development of convection. A few patches of low-level moisture
ride the trade winds across the basin, producing brief and weak
showers. A surface trough is located about 60 nm east of the
Yucatan peninsula in the NW Caribbean Sea, but there is no
significant convection associated with this feature.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of
the area and low pressure over Colombia will support pulses of
fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean through
Sun. The Gulf of Honduras will experience nightly pulses of fresh
winds at night from Thu night to Sun night. Gentle to moderate
winds will prevail elsewhere through Fri before increasing
slightly this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N56W and
extends to 27N69W. A surface trough is found along 69W from 22N to
26N and another surface trough is stretches from 29N72W to the
NW Bahamas near 25N77W. The interaction of these features and
divergence aloft allows for scattered showers N of 28N and between
64W and 71W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass depict fresh to
strong cyclonic easterly winds N of 28N and between 62W and 72W. Seas
of 8-12 ft are occurring N of 24N and between 48W and 75W.
Another surface trough is present along 33W from 21N to 26N and a
few showers are noted near the trough axis. Recent satellite-
derived wind data indicate that fresh to locally strong cyclonic
winds prevail from 20N to 29N and between 29W and 40W. Seas of
7-10 ft are occurring N of 15N and E of 48W. The rest of the basin
is dominated by two strong high pressure systems located in the
mid- latitudes, providing fairly tranquil weather conditions and
moderate or weaker winds, and seas of 5-8 ft.

For the forecast, northerly swell is impacting the waters north of 25N.
Seas will subside today. A cold front will enter the far NW
waters later today, followed by a stronger cold front moving off
NE Florida late Thu night or early Fri morning. High pressure
building in the wake of this front will support fresh to strong
winds over the waters N of Cuba and across the Bahamas this
weekend.

$$
DELGADO
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