[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jan 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Brief N winds to gale force are
expected late today near the coast of Morocco, in the marine zone
Agadir, from 05/1500 UTC until 06/0000 UTC. Seas of 11 to 13 ft
are expected in the area. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges off the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 08N19W. The ITCZ continues from 08N19W to 06N21W to
04N32W to 03.5N38W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. A surface
trough extends from 07N47W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is observed on satellite imagery from
03N to 07N and between 17W and 41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An expansive 1030 mb high pressure system across the
Mid-Atlantic coast extends southwestward into the Gulf of
Mexico. The dry and stable airmass covering the basin only
allows for a shallow layer of stratocumulus clouds to dominate
the region, leading to fairly tranquil weather conditions.
Mainly gentle anticyclonic winds prevail across the Gulf. Seas
of 3-5 ft are present over the southern half of the basin, with
1-3 ft seas north of 25N.

For the forecast, high pressure extending across the Gulf of
Mexico will produce light to gentle winds through today. A cold
front is forecast to move off the Texas coast on Thu. Fresh to
locally strong northerly winds will prevail across the northern
Gulf west of the front. The front will stall from near central
Florida to Tampico, Mexico where it will dissipate by this
weekend. Fresh southerly return flow will then prevail across
most of the Gulf on Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends across the NW Caribbean from the Isle
of Youth to the Honduras/Guatemala border near 16N88W. Clouds
with possible isolated showers are along and west of the trough.
The remainder of the Caribbean basin is free of any significant
weather features or precipitation areas. A recent ASCAT
satellite wind pass reveals fresh trades over the south-central
Caribbean, with strong winds in the Gulf of Venezuela and within
120 nm of the Colombia coast. Fresh NE winds are west of the
aforementioned surface trough. Moderate trades prevail elsewhere
across the basin. Seas are likely 6-8 ft in the south-central
and SW Caribbean, with 4-6 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support
pulses of fresh to strong trade winds across the central
Caribbean through Sat. The Gulf of Honduras will experience
pulses of fresh winds at night from Fri night to Sun night.
Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through Fri
before increasing slightly this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N57W to 28N63W to near 26.5N68.5W,
where it becomes a dissipating stationary front to 26.5N72W, and
continues as a shear line to 24N78W near southern Andros Island
Bahamas. No significant precipitation other than light isolated
showers accompany the front. The latest ASCAT satellite wind
data show fresh E winds north of the front. Seas are 8-13 ft in
this area, mainly north of 26.5N between 55W-78W. Gentle winds
cover the Bahamas, thanks to a narrow ridge that extends from a
1025 mb surface high near 33N45W to 26N64W to 25N72W to the
Bahamas. Seas are 4-7 ft along and south of the ridge axis, to
the Greater Antilles. Just south of this ridge, a surface trough
is along 68W, north of the Dominican Republic, accompanied by
isolated showers.

A surface trough extends from 30N44W to 20N45W. ASCAT shows
fresh trades east of this surface trough to the coast of Africa,
in the 20-30N latitude band. Mainly moderate trades prevail
elsewhere across the Atlantic. Seas are 7-9 ft east of 50W and
north of 21N. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will continue to
shift eastward, with winds and seas decreasing today west of
65W. A second cold front will move east of northern Florida
tonight, followed by a stronger cold front moving off NE Florida
late Thu night or early Fri morning. High pressure building in
the wake of this front will support fresh to strong winds over
the waters N of Cuba and the Bahamas this weekend.

$$
Hagen
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