[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032320
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jan 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2240 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Western Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Warning...

A cold front extends from offshore NE Florida near 31N75W SSW
across the extreme NW Bahamas, across the Straits of Florida to
western Cuba. Gale-force NW winds and seas up to 15 ft are
occurring behind the frontal boundary, with seas ranging from 10
to 15 ft present N of 29N and between 75W and 80W. Strong to
near-gale force SW winds prevail ahead of the cold front to 66W
and north of the NW Bahamas. Gale-force winds are expected to
diminish in the next few hours, with winds becoming moderate to
fresh by late tonight. Seas will subside by Wednesday.

...Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Warning...

The pressure gradient from the subtropical ridge north of the
Greater Antilles and lower pressures over northern South America
will bring brief gale force winds near the coast of NW Colombia
tonight and again Tue night. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass show strong to near gale-force trades occurring offshore NW
Colombia. Seas are expected to build to 11 ft tonight and 10 ft
Tuesday night. Strong winds will continue across the central
Caribbean through the rest of the week.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at
the website...https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for
more details about each warning situation.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Liberia near 06N10W and extends to 04.5N24W. The ITCZ
continues from 04.5N24W to 03.5N40W and to the coast of NE Brazil
near 00N49W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from
02.5N to 05N between 03W and 16W, and from 00N to 04N between 42W
and 50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of
the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 16W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico has cleared all
but the eastern half of the Straits of Florida, extending from
just E of the Upper Florida Keys to western Cuba to Belize.  A
few showers are noted near the frontal boundary across the Straits
and the Yucatan Channel. The rest of the Gulf is dominated by a
strong high pressure system positioned over SE Texas, allowing dry
continental air to spill over most of the region. Late morning
scatterometer satellite data confirmed that strong to near gale-
force winds were present over the Bay of Campeche and in the NE
Gulf, while fresh or weaker winds prevailed elsewhere. Winds have
diminished since then. Seas of 8-16 ft are found over the SE two-
thirds of the Gulf. Seas ranging from 12 to 16 ft are prevalent S
of 24N and between 88W and 96W.

For the forecast, the cold front will completely exit the basin
later this evening. Strong northerly winds and high seas are
ongoing across the the SE and SW Gulf. These conditions will
gradually subside tonight. Light to gentle variable winds are
expected Tue increasing to gentle to moderate speeds Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale-force warning for the south-central Caribbean.

A tight pressure gradient across the Caribbean Basin is resulting
in fresh to strong trades occurring in the north-central and SW
Caribbean Sea, as depicted in late morning satellite-derived wind
data. Moderate to fresh trades are present in the eastern
Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Honduras, while weak trades are noted
in the NW Caribbean just ahead of the front. Seas of 5-8 ft are
prevalent across most of the basin outside of the south-central
Caribbean, where seas are 7-10 ft. except for 2-5 ft seas in the
NW Caribbean. A dry airmass dominates the Caribbean Sea, only
allowing a few weak showers near the coast of NE Honduras.

For the forecast, surface ridging across the SW N Atlantic
extending to the northern Caribbean and high pressure building in
the wake of a cold front entering the far NW Caribbean waters this
evening will continue to support fresh to locally strong trade
winds across the central and portions of the SW basin through Fri.
Brief gale-force winds are expected near the Colombian coast
tonight and Tue night. The cold front will bring fresh NE winds
and building seas to the Yucatan channel and the NW Caribbean
through Tue when the front is forecast to dissipate from western
Cuba to Belize adjacent waters. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds are expected to diminish in the E Caribbean Tue and resume
again Tue night through Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale-force warning for the western tropical Atlantic.

Outside of the cold front located offshore NE Florida, the only
other feature of interest is a weak low pressure system centered
near 26N41W. A stationary front extends from the low pressure to
31N37W and shallow convection is noted E of the low pressure and
frontal boundary to 32W and north of 25N. A weakening cold front
extends from the low pressure to 18N50W to 22N61W and only a few
weak showers are seen near the boundary. A late morning
scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh to strong NE
winds are occurring north of 25N and W of the low pressure to 46W.
Seas of 7-10 ft are found north of the frontal boundaries, mainly
between 33W and 55W.  Elsewhere, fresh trades and seas of 6-9 ft
are also observed south of 15N and between 40W and the Lesser
Antilles. The rest of the basin enjoys tranquil weather
conditions, moderate or weaker winds and 4-7 ft seas.

For the forecast, the previously-mentioned cold front moving
across the NW offshore waters continues to generate gale-force
winds N of 30N with rough seas. Gale conditions will diminish
this evening as the front continues to push farther east and away
from the area. Fresh to strong winds and building seas associated
with the front will gradually subside to the east of the Bahamas
on Wed.

$$
Stripling
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