[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021053
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jan 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A strengthening winter storm is going to move east-northeastward,
from the USA central Plains to the Northeast USA, through Monday.
A strong cold front associated with this storm will enter the NW
Gulf of Mexico this morning, reaching the SW Gulf of Mexico this
afternoon. Gale-force winds are expected to develop over the NW
Gulf at around 12Z, reach 45 kt across the W central Gulf near
18Z, and then spread across the SW corner of the Gulf waters
tonight. Seas will peak to 16 ft with the strongest winds. Winds
and seas will diminish on Mon morning.

...Western Atlantic Gale Warning...

The same described above will exit the Georgia-S Carolina
coastline and move into the W Atlantic tonight. Expect gale-
force winds and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 14 feet
offshore from the N Florida-Georgia coast by early Monday morning.
The wind speeds and the sea heights should begin to subside late
on Monday afternoon, as the front moves more to the east, into the
W Atlantic, and away from the USA coastline.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at
the website...https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for
more details on each gale-force wind situation.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N12W to 06N15W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N15W to 01N49W. Scattered moderate convection
prevails from 01N-08N between 10W-44W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about
the gale warning in effect for the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge passes from an Atlantic Ocean 1022 mb high
pressure center that is near 28N68W, through the NW Bahamas,
through Florida along 26N, into the central/south central Gulf
of Mexico. A tight surface pressure gradient, that is between the
ridge and developing low pressure in central Texas, is supporting
fresh to strong southerly winds in most of the Gulf, except for
the E edge along the Florida coast with moderate winds. The sea
heights range from 7 to 9 ft in the NW and N central Gulf, from 4
to 6 ft in the SW and S central Gulf, and from 2 to 4 ft in the E
Gulf, including in the Straits of Florida.

Fresh return flow is across the Gulf W of 86W ahead of a strong
cold front forecast to come off the coast of Texas today. Strong
to gale conditions will begin at 12Z and continue through the day
across the western half of the basin. The front is forecast to
move east of the gulf Mon morning. Winds and seas associated with
the front will subside gradually through Mon night. Light to
gentle variable winds are expected Tue, increasing to gentle to
moderate speeds Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tight surface pressure gradient, that is between the Atlantic
Ocean 1022 mb high pressure center, and lower pressures near the
Panama/Colombia border, is maintaining a fresh ENE to E trade wind
pattern in the entire basin. Fresh to strong trade winds, and sea
heights that range from 8 to 11 ft, are in the central basin
between 67W and 80W. Moderate trade winds and sea heights that
range from 4 to 6 ft are in the NW basin, including in the
Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh trade winds and sea heights
that range from 6 to 8 ft cover the remainder of the basin.

High pressure centered E of the Bahamas is forecast to remain
nearly-stationary through today, supporting moderate to fresh
trade winds across the Caribbean, except for locally strong winds
in the Gulf of Honduras, the central Caribbean Sea, and parts of
the SW basin. Trade winds in the E basin will diminish to gentle
to moderate speeds on Mon as a cold front enters the SW N Atlantic
waters. The tail of this front will enter the far NW Caribbean
Mon morning supporting fresh NE winds and building seas in the
Yucatan Channel through Tue morning when the front is forecast to
weaken as a stationary front from western Cuba to Belize.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about
the gale warning in effect for the W Atlantic.

A 1022 mb high is centered near 28N69W. To the east, a cold front
extends from 31N39W to 24N49W to 31N61W. Scattered showers are
noted along the front.

Moderate to fresh westerly winds are near the cold front, N of
26N between 46W and 54W. Residual NW swell is keeping sea
heights that range from 7 to 11 ft from the Cabo Verde Islands
northward from 40W eastward. Sea heights range from 7 to 9 ft
within 420 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 40W and 50W, and
from 22N northward between 50W and 56W. The sea heights range from
4 to 7 ft elsewhere from 40W westward. The Atlantic ridge is
promoting light to gentle winds. Gentle to moderate, with locally
fresh NE to SE trade winds, cover the waters that are from 18N
southward, from Africa westward. Moderate to fresh southerly winds
are within 250 nm to the east of the Florida coast, from Lake
Okeechobee northward.

High pressure centered E of the Bahamas will remain
nearly-stationary today. The high pressure will weaken and move
east this evening ahead of a strong cold front that will enter
the NW offshore waters late tonight into Mon. Strong to near
gale force southerly winds will prevail today to the N of the
Bahamas ahead of the front then reaching gale force N of 30N
early on Mon. Gale force conditions will diminish late Mon
afternoon as the front moves away from the area. Building seas
associated with the front will subside to the east of the Bahamas
on Wed.

$$
ERA
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