[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250425
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Feb 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure across the western Atlantic and lower pressure over
northern Colombia will continue to support pulsing NE trades to
minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia each night through
early Sunday. Seas will range between 8 to 11 ft during the gale
event. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through the coast
of Guinea near 10N13W and continues to 05N17W. The ITCZ then
extends from 05N17W to 02N33W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is found within 120 nm of the ITCZ
between 17W and 44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from SW Louisiana to 27N95W, where it
transitions into a stationary front that continues to the coast of
Tamaulipas near 23N98W. Marine fog and light, isolated showers
continue to affect the waters behind the frontal boundary. A
couple of surface troughs are found in the eastern and western Bay
of Campeche, but no significant convection is associated with
these features. The rest of the Gulf of Mexico is dominated by a
1023 mb high pressure system positioned over the Big Bend region
of Florida. Fresh to locally strong anticyclonic winds are
present in the SE Gulf, off NW Yucatan and behind the cold front
in the offshore Texas waters. Seas in these parts of the Gulf are
3-6 ft, with the highest seas occurring in the Florida Straits.
The rest of the basin experiences moderate or weaker winds and
seas of 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will slowly shift
east and extend from the FL/AL border to the SW Gulf by Fri
evening, then may retrograde through the first part of the
weekend. A reinforcing push will move the front eastward again by
Sun, with the front gradually moving southeast of the basin early
next week. Fresh to strong northerly winds are possible in the
west-central and SW Gulf behind the front Sun afternoon into early
Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia.
Please read the Special Features section for details.

Fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail across the Caribbean
Sea. Recent scatterometer satellite data and surface observations indicate
that fresh to strong trades are affecting the north-central
Caribbean Sea, Windward Passage and the lee of Cuba. The strongest
winds are found across the offshore waters of Hispaniola.
Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted in the western and
eastern Caribbean. Seas of 4-7 ft are present in the north-
central, SW and W Caribbean Sea, while seas of 2-4 ft are
prevalent in the E Caribbean.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale-force offshore of
Colombia at night through early Sun. Fresh to strong NE winds will
pulse in the lee of Cuba through early Sat. Similar winds will
pulse through the approach to the Windward Passage and south of
Hispaniola through early Sun. Mainly moderate to fresh trades will
prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean through Sat night. A weak cold
front may move into the NW Caribbean Sun night. Fresh to strong
trades will develop east of the Lesser Antilles Fri night, then
moderate to fresh through the remainder of the weekend, helping to
build seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Water vapor satellite imagery depict a large upper level low well
NE of the Leeward Islands moving slowly westward. At the surface,
a couple of troughs are identified from 31N60W to 23N61W and from
19N57W to 26N59W. Scattered weak showers are found E of the
surface troughs, especially from 21N to 25N and W of 51W. The
pressure gradient between the surface troughs and a 1027 mb high
pressure system near 32N71W results in fresh to strong NE winds W
of 64W to the Bahamas and from the western and central Greater
Antilles to 30N, including the entrance of the Windward Passage.
Seas of 6-10 ft are present in the region described. The waters
offshore Florida and NW Bahamas are experiencing moderate or
weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft.

Recent scatterometer satellite data depict a large region of fresh
to strong anticyclonic winds covering most of the central and
eastern Atlantic, especially E of 60W. This is due to the strong
1035 mb high pressure located NE of the Azores and lower pressures
in the deep tropics. Seas are 6-10 ft in the areas mentioned. An
altimeter satellite pass from a few hours ago captured seas up to
11 ft over the central Atlantic, about 500 nm SE of Bermuda.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure near 31N and a trough of low pressure
just east of 65W will support fresh to strong NE winds from 22N to
27N and east of 70W overnight, along with moderate to fresh winds
elsewhere south of 27N. The pressure gradient will relax Fri and
Fri night allowing for improving marine conditions. A weak cold
front may move into the NE Florida waters Sat where it will stall.
A reinforcing push will move the front southeast into early next
week, with low pressure possibly developing along it east of
northern Florida. The low would then drag the front southeast
through mid-week.

$$
DELGADO
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