[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212241
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Feb 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
Bermuda High in the western Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure
over Colombia will continue to support pulsing NE winds to gale-
force near the coast of Colombia from tonight night through Sat
night. The sea heights will range from 9-11 ft with the strongest
winds.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 03N25W. The ITCZ continues from 03N25W to
the Equator along 50W. Isolated moderate convection is occurring
from 03N-05N between 14W-21W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from the equator-08N between 43W-55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends along the N Gulf of Mexico. Moderate and
weaker winds prevail across the basin this afternoon.

A surface ridge covers the area, from NE Florida into the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
Moderate wind speeds or slower span the Gulf of Mexico. The sea
heights range from 8 feet to 9 feet, from the Yucatan Peninsula
northwestward for 340 nm. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 3
feet from 90W eastward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5
feet from 90W westward.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly return flow will
develop in the NW Gulf starting tonight and continuing into Tue
night. A cold front is expected to enter the far NW Gulf Thu
night, bringing strong N winds to portions of the northern and
western Gulf for the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
pulsing gale-force winds offshore Colombia.

The surface pressure gradient, that is between high pressure
that is to the north of the area and lower surface pressures
that are in northern Colombia, is causing enhanced trade wind
flow. Fresh NE winds are within 300 nm to the SW of SE Cuba in
the Caribbean Sea, in parts of the south central waters from 12N
to 17N between 69W and 81W, and within 100 nm off the coast of
the Dominican Republic from 70W westward. Moderate NE winds are
elsewhere. The sea heights were ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet
offshore Colombia between 74W and 76W. The sea heights are
ranging from 9 feet to 11 feet from 16.5N northward from 85W
westward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere.

The winds will pulse to gale force off the Colombian coast each
night through Fri. Fresh to strong northeast winds in the lee
side of Cuba, south of Hispaniola and across the Windward
Passage, will prevail through the forecast period. Otherwise,
moderate trade winds will continue in the tropical
north Atlantic Ocean to the east of the Lesser Antilles,
increasing to fresh speeds on Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N53W to 30N55W. A shear line
continues from 30N55W, to 28N60W 26N70W 25N73W. A NW-to-SE
oriented surface trough is along 30N50W 23N49W 16N48W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 25N northward between 44W and 60W. Isolated moderate is
elsewhere from 16N northward between 30W and 70W. Moderate to
fresh NE winds are to the north of shear line, and from 27N
northward between 50W and 60W. The sea heights range from 8 feet
to 13 feet from the shear line northward and northwestward. The
sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet, from 9N to the shear
line from 50W westward.

A 1039 mb high pressure is on top of the Azores. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from the
30N50W-to-16N48W surface trough eastward.

NE near gale-force winds are from 180 nm to 380 nm to the north
of the Canary Islands. Strong NE winds are within 200 nm on
either side of the line from 19N19W to 22N29W to 26N41W, and
from 05N to 11N between 40W and 50W. Moderate to fresh winds are
in the remainder of the area. The sea heights range from 8 feet
to 10 feet from 05N northward between 30W and 50W. The sea
heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet elsewhere between 30W and
50W. The sea heights range from 9 feet to 13 feet from 16N
northward from 30W eastward. The sea heights range from 6 feet
to 9 elsewhere from 30W eastward.

A shear line that extends from 30N56W to the Bahamas offshore
waters near 26N72W. The shear line is forecast to dissipate
today. A tightening gradient between high pressure building over
the area, and an approaching broad trough from the east, will
lead to northeast to east winds increasing to fresh
speeds in most of the southern forecast waters, from late Wed
through Thu night. Fresh to strong northeast winds are expected
near and in the Windward Passage.

$$
Landsea/ERA
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