[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181038
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Feb 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient due to
strong Atlantic high pressure interacting with low pressure in
northern Colombia will continue to induce gale-force winds
pulsing offshore northern Colombia at night, with winds possibly
reaching 40 kt at times. The wave heights will range from 11-13
ft, with the highest during the early morning hours.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from
southeastern Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico. Strong north winds,
with frequent gusts to gale force and building seas are occurring
over the NW Gulf. Overnight ASCAT satellite data pass reveals
a large area of 30 kt north winds, with embedded wind vectors of
34-36 kt over the NW Gulf W of 94W. The latest altimeter data pass
has wave heights of 8-10 ft from 27N to 29N and between 93W- 97W.
A few of the latest buoy report wave heights approaching 11 ft.

The frequent gusts to gale-force winds will become strong north
to northeast winds around mid-morning. The front will reach from
the western Florida panhandle to 24N94W and to the western Bay of
Campeche by this morning, then weaken as it reaches from near Ft.
Myers, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by Sat morning.
As the front advances south-southeastward, sustained gale-force
northwest to north winds along with wave heights of 8-12 ft will
develop in the SW Gulf near Veracruz this afternoon and evening.
Winds will diminish to just below gale-force late tonight as the
gradient slackens a little.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
both Gale Warnings.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force north winds are expected
to develop Sat in the marine zone of Agadir according to the
latest forecast from Meteo France. Seas in the area will build to
13-14 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
Meteo-France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of southern Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 06N17W, where latest scatterometer data
indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ continues from 06N17W to
03S36W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 24W-31W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 90 nm south of the ITCZ between
26W-32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
gale warnings in the NW and SW Gulf areas.

A cold front is analyzed from near New Orleans southwestward to
27N95W and to Tampico, Mexico. Conditions presently behind the
front are as described above under Special Features. The earlier
fresh to strong southerly winds that were over the north-central
Gulf have diminished to moderate to fresh speeds, with wave
heights of 5-6 ft. Elsewhere to the E of the front, winds are
generally gentle to moderate, south to southwest in direction N of
26N and southeast to south S of 26N. Wave heights with these
winds are in the 3-5 ft range. Winds in the SW Gulf are gentle
to moderate, east to southeast in direction, along with wave
heights of 3-5 ft.

Patches of broken and mid-level clouds are within 30 nm either
of line from 30N89W to 28N92W, and within 45 nm either side of a
line from 28N92W to 26N95W and to 22N97W. Patches of dense fog are
out ahead of the front along and just inland sections of the
north-central and NE Gulf.

As for the forecast, the frequent gusts to gale-force winds will
become strong north to northeast winds this morning. The front will
reach from the western Florida panhandle to 24N94W and to the
western Bay of Campeche by this morning, then weaken as it reaches
from near Ft. Myers, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by
Sat morning. Sustained gale-force northwest to north winds will
develop in the SW Gulf near Veracruz this afternoon and evening.
The front will dissipate across the Gulf region on Sun as high
pressure builds across the southeastern U.S. Moderate to fresh
return flow will develop over the Gulf early next week, except for
fresh to strong winds over the north-central Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
pulsing gale-force winds offshore Colombia.

The gradient between a strong 1043 mb high pressure in the north-
central Atlantic and a 1007 mb low over Colombia is supporting
fresh to strong easterly winds through the majority of the central
and eastern Caribbean with gale force winds near the coast of
Colombia. As wind speed and fetch area increases, wave heights
build from moderate in the eastern Caribbean to rough in the
central Caribbean. Conditions are more favorable in the
northwestern Caribbean, with moderate to fresh easterly winds and
moderate seas.

As for the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia
each night through Tue night, while fresh to strong trade winds
will dominate most of the east and central Caribbean today. Fresh
to strong northeast winds will funnel through the Windward
Passage through Tue night. Otherwise, fresh to strong trade winds
and building seas will continue over the tropical north Atlantic
waters east of the Lesser Antilles through today.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The weather pattern is dominated by a very strong 1043 mb high
pressure in the north-central Atlantic well to the N of the area
near 39N42W. This is creating an enhanced gradient with lower
pressure near the ITCZ and South America. As a result, fresh
easterly winds dominate the majority of the basin, becoming more
southerly in the western Atlantic. A shear line extends across the
northern portion of the discussion area in the central Atlantic
from near 31N37W to 29N45W and to 28N58W. The latest scatterometer
satellite data passes indicate an extensive swath of of strong to
near gale-force northeast to east winds north of this feature
with moderate to fresh winds to the south. Overnight altimeter
data passes note wave heights of 12-15 ft to the north of the
shear line, with wave heights of 8-12 ft reaching as far south as
12N. A lighter gradient in the eastern Atlantic is keeping
moderate trades and wave heights there.

For the forecast west of 60W, strong high pressure located N of
the area will shift eastward allowing for the next cold front to
move off northern Florida by this evening. The front will reach
from 31N75W to near Lake Okeechobee by Sat morning, and from near
31N60W to the NW Bahamas by Sun morning. Fresh to strong
southerly winds are expected ahead of the front today. Fresh to
strong northerly winds are forecast in the wake of the front Sat
night into Sun. High pressure in the wake of the front will
control the weather pattern in the region for the remainder of the
forecast period.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France for
updates on the potential gale force winds in the eastern Atlantic
this weekend. Website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html

$$
Aguirre
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